Part 2 — United States

By Carl Zulauf, Joana Colussi, Gary Schnitkey, and Nick Paulson

Since 1980, U.S. exports of grains and oilseeds have grown, but at a slower rate than U.S. domestic consumption, resulting in a declining relative role of exports in the U.S. grain-oilseed sector. The decline reflects many factors, including higher per capita income, which has increased consumption of animal protein, and the longstanding U.S. goal of energy self-sufficiency. It is also consistent with U.S. domestic demand being a more certain demand expansion path than exports for U.S. farm policy advocates given that the U.S. has taken a variety of international trade actions over time that have negatively impacted grain and oilseed exports (Farmdoc Daily, July 13, 2018).

Data and Procedures

This study examines production, domestic consumption, and exports of grains and oilseeds in the U.S. since 1980 as reported in the Production, Supply, and Distribution Online (PSD) database (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agriculture Service). Domestic consumption is the quantity consumed by a country from domestic production and imports. To maintain comparability with the analysis of grains and oilseeds in South America and China published on Aug. 22, 2025 in farmdoc daily, this study starts with the 1981/1982 crop year (hereafter, only the first year is used). Grains and oilseeds in this study include feed grains (barley, corn, millet, oats, sorghum), food grains (rice, rye, wheat), and oilseeds (cottonseed, peanuts, rapeseed, soybeans, sunflowers). These 13 crops should be considered collectively since they compete for acres and are demand substitutes and complements. Since the weight per unit differs by crop, the unit of measurement is metric ton.

U.S. — Declining Relative Role for Exports

U.S. exports, domestic consumption, and production of combined grains plus oilseeds are, respectively, 24%, 93%, and 58% higher in 2021–2025 than in 1981–1985 (see Figure 1). The linear trend increase is, respectively, 0.9, 5.6, and 6.3 million metric tons per year since 1980 (see Figure 2). Explanatory power of the linear time trend is 36% for exports, 97% for domestic consumption, and 80% for production. Each linear trend relationship is significant at 99% statistical confidence. Because U.S. domestic consumption has increased more than U.S. exports, export share of U.S. domestic consumption plus exports has declined from 33.5% in 1981–1985 to 24.5% in 2021–2025.

U.S. Annual Production Surplus

To further examine the dynamics of the U.S. grain-oilseed market, the annual difference between production and domestic consumption as a share of domestic consumption is calculated. The difference between production and domestic consumption will primarily end up as exports or ending stocks. Unsurprisingly given Figure 1, the U.S. production surplus above domestic consumption as a share of domestic consumption has declined (see Figure 3). The rate of annual decline is 0.45 percentage point per year. Annual U.S. production surplus over domestic consumption averaged 32% in 2021–2025 vs. 60% in 1981-1985. However, U.S. production has never been below U.S. domestic consumption. The smallest production surplus over domestic consumption was 14% in the major drought year of 1988. Three other years were also below 20%: 1983 and 2012, both major drought years, and 1993, when extended cloudy, wet weather negatively impacted U.S. production.

Impact on U.S. Price

A regression analysis is conducted to estimate the ability of the annual U.S. production surplus as a share of domestic consumption to explain the percent change in the U.S. grain-oilseed composite price from the prior year. To illustrate these variables, the regression data set contains a dependent variable showing a -2.4% change in the U.S. grain-oilseed composite price from the 1981 to 1982 crop years, paired with an explanatory variable of an 81% ratio of U.S. production surplus to domestic consumption for the 1982 crop year. Construction of the grain-oilseed composite price is discussed in the Data Note.

U.S. annual percent production surplus over domestic consumption explained 29% of the year-to-year percent change in the U.S. grain-oilseed composite price (see Figure 4). Statistical confidence is 99%. In comparison, annual percent production surplus/deficit of South America plus China explained only 5% of the percent change in this U.S. price and was not statistically significant (Farmdoc Daily, Aug. 22, 2025).

Discussion

Although the U.S. has consistently been an exporter of grain and oilseeds over the last 45 years, the role of exports in the U.S. grain-oilseed sector has steadily declined as U.S. exports have grown slower than U.S. domestic consumption.

Expanding U.S. domestic consumption of grains and oilseeds reflects many factors, including higher per capita income, thus consumption of animal protein, as well as the U.S.’s longstanding goal of energy self-sufficiency. It is also consistent with the counter-response of the U.S. field crop sector to using embargos and other international trade restrictions that negatively impact U.S. exports as instruments of U.S. foreign policy. In short, growing U.S. domestic demand is a more certain demand expansion path for U.S. farm policy advocates than is growing U.S. exports.

U.S. farm bills in the 21st Century have contained an agricultural trade title. It has funded a variety of trade promotion programs (see U.S. Congressional Research Service, updated June 18, 2025). Moreover, the 2025 Reconciliation Farm Bill created a new agricultural trade promotion program, the Supplemental Trade Promotion Program. Its authorized budget baseline is $285 million per year through Fiscal Year 2036 (see U.S. Congressional Research Service, updated June 25, 2025).

These legislative efforts are an indication of continuing U.S. interest in promoting agricultural exports. But, it is also important to point out that they impact demand for U.S. grains and oilseeds far less than the various U.S. biofuels mandates. This policy difference, in effect, both creates and reflects the different increase in U.S. grain-oilseed domestic consumption and exports since 1980 (93% vs. 24%).

The annual U.S. production surplus over domestic consumption explained a statistically significant 29% of the variation in the year-to-year percent change of the U.S. grain-oilseed composite price. This share is a relatively high single variable explanation of a variable measured in percent change, but it also means that a large share of the yearly percent change in the U.S. grain-oilseed composite price is explained by other variables.

The next article in this series will examine trends in the grain-oilseed production surplus for the rest of the world excluding the U.S., South America, and China. The last article in this series will use regression analysis to assess the relative ability of U.S., South America-China, and the rest of the world production surpluses/deficits to explain yearly changes in the U.S. grain-oilseed composite price.

Data Note

The U.S. composite price index for the grains and oilseeds in this study was calculated as follows. First, each grain and oilseed’s U.S. average price for the 1981–2024 market years was obtained from the QuickStats database maintained by the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. Second, all per bushel prices were converted to price per pound using the crop’s standard pounds per bushel conversion factor. Third, each crop’s price per pound was weighted by the crop’s share of total U.S. grain and oilseed production for the year. Fourth, the weighted prices were summed across the crops. This sum was the U.S. grain-oilseed composite price for the market year.

Grains and Oilseeds: Part 2 — United States was originally published by Farmdoc.