Wet Easter Weekend Could Cause Planting Delays and Flooding

A storm system will move through multiple states in the Midwest that may impact Easter celebrations and cause potential planting delays. The system will start in Texas and move up through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather, said this system will be beneficial for areas experiencing moisture deficits, but could cause more flooding and planting delays for others. 

“There’s an area of low pressure that forms late Saturday in Texas, and that’s when the heaviest will come in from late Saturday through Sunday through the Mississippi Valley and then up into the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday morning,” Pastelok said. 

Pastelok said flooding is possible with this system, especially south of St. Louis, where river levels are expected to rise again.

“I’m still concerned about areas south of St. Louis, down toward Paducah, Kentucky, Memphis, Little Rock, you’re going to see another big rise in the rivers and streams that can cause some flooding along the bank shores,” Pastelok said. 

Justin Glisan, state climatologist of Iowa, said that the storm moving through Iowa may bring large hail. However, he said after the system this weekend, there will be a window to get in the field. 

“There’s capacity in the soil profiles to get this moisture in, so I don’t think it’s going to keep planters out of the fields too long,” Glisan said. 

Potential Planting Delays in Eastern Corn Belt 

The eastern Corn Belt will see more precipitation as southern Illinois and Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee look to continue to recover after historic flooding. According to a release from AccuWeather, the flooding and severe weather from two weeks ago caused an estimated $80 billion to $90 billion in damage and economic loss. 

“If planters are rolling out there more broadly, across the eastern Corn Belt, that’s where we see the wettest potential with chances of anywhere from 2–4 inches over the next seven days,” Glisan said. 

David Tollieris, meteorologist and owner of wxrisk.com, reiterated potential for planting delays in the eastern Corn Belt. 

“For the Delta and eastern Corn Belt, this is going to stop planting or at least slow it down, especially in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana,” Tolleris said. 

Glisan also said it will be important for states in the western Corn Belt, like Iowa, to continue getting consistent rains going into the growing season. He said that while the active season in 2024 broke the four-year drought starting in 2020, there are still longer-term precipitation deficits. 

“If you go back even five years, a majority of stations across Iowa have missed out on at least one year’s worth of precipitation,” Glisan said. “If we don’t get regular rainfalls through the growing season, that’s where we could backslide into those longer-term deficits.” 

Winter Wheat 

Tolleris said winter wheat growing regions like Kansas, western Nebraska, the Texas Panhandle, and eastern Colorado will miss out on significant precipitation from this weekend’s systems. 

“The way this system is going to develop actually doesn’t do much for the winter wheat areas at all – they miss the rain,” Tolleris said. 

The most recent Crop Progress report rated 72% of Nebraska’s topsoil moisture condition very short/short and its winter wheat condition 40% very poor/poor. It rated 54% of Kansas topsoil moisture condition very short/short. In addition, 18% of winter wheat in Kansas was rated very poor/poor.