USDA Reduces Corn Ending Stocks More Than Expected

Today, USDA released the April 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks

While the average trade expectation was for USDA to reduce 2024/2025 U.S. corn ending stocks, the agency went even lower than expected. Concerning soybeans and wheat, the trade expected increases in ending stocks. USDA defied expectations for soybeans by going lower, and took wheat ending stocks higher than the average expectation.

2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks

Concerning 2024/2025 global corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks, USDA was not too far off from the average trade expectation for each. For corn and wheat, USDA was a bit lower than expected. Soybeans were pegged higher than expected.

2024/2025 Argentina and Brazil Crop Production

Despite expectations for adjustments, USDA once again held corn and soybean production estimates steady month-over-month for Argentina and Brazil.

More From USDA

Wheat

“This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2024/2025 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, slightly smaller domestic use, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks,” USDA said in the April 2025 WASDE report. “Supplies are raised on higher projected imports, up 10 million bushels to 150 million, with increases for hard red spring (HRS), durum, white, and hard red winter (HRW). At this level, imports would be the largest since 2017/2018. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use, based primarily on the March NASS [National Agricultural Statistics Service] Prospective Plantings report. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 120 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class revisions based on the March 31 NASS Grain Stocks report. Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million with reductions to HRS and HRW. Projected 2024/2025 ending stocks are raised 27 million bushels to 846 million, 22% above the previous year.” 

Corn

“This month’s 2024/2025 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports, reduced feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks,” USDA said in the report. “Feed and residual use is cut 25 million bushels to 5.8 billion based on disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated in the March 31 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 100 million bushels reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and relatively competitive U.S. prices. With no other use changes, ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.5 billion.”

Soybeans

“The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2024/2025 includes higher imports and crush, and lower ending stocks,” USDA said in the report. “Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 4.42 billion on higher soybean meal domestic use and soybean oil exports. Soybean oil exports are increased based on export commitments. Soybean oil for biofuel is lowered based on pace to date. However, stronger use is forecast for the last part of the marketing year due to tariffs impacting imports of other biofuel feedstocks, like used cooking oil. With soybean exports unchanged and imports increased slightly, soybean ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 375 million.”

Trade Reaction

Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor, Total Farm Marketing: “Today’s USDA report was supportive for old-crop corn and soybeans. The news was supportive enough that old-crop corn and soybean prices should show overall support and strength in the coming weeks….

“This lower ending stock number for old-crop [corn], and lower global corn carryout, puts tremendous emphasis back on weather events for Brazil for second-crop corn production, and even U.S. corn production in the coming months. The planting pace for corn in the U.S. seems to be on a slower start, especially with cooler temperatures and a flooded eastern Corn Belt.

“Soybean ending stocks had supportive news thanks to stronger demand for crush.

“Might be a ‘who blinks first’ game in the corn and bean market going forward, with traders still cautious about tariff news, and all eyes on weather forecasts.”

Jeremy McCann, account manager, Farmer’s Keeper: “Despite the mass selling not only in commodities but in equities as well, old-crop corn has performed very well in the face of tariffs. That’s mainly because of what we were expecting from today’s WASDE report, and it did not disappoint. The USDA cut domestic ending stocks for 2024/2025 corn more than anticipated due to increased export demand. We have been exceeding the USDA’s pace [for exports] so it was expected for [the export] number to be revised higher…. I think it’s fair to say that this WASDE report came with minimal surprises.” 

Note: Trade expectations are sourced from The Wall Street Journal.