Health Policy, Trade Wars, and Big Yields Drive the Ag Agenda

The public is anxiously awaiting the release of the second Make America Healthy Again Commission report. On this episode of Agri-Pulse Newsmakers, Cathy Burns, president and CEO of the International Fresh Produce Association, discussed the opportunities her group sees in the upcoming guidance, the need for ag labor reform, and when consumers may begin to see higher produce prices caused by tariffs.

Plus, Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company, discussed the USDA’s bin-busting corn crop projections and China’s lack of soybean purchasing this year. Becky Rasdall Vargas, a senior vice president at the International Dairy Foods Association, also joined the conversation to discuss the trade landscape, and the foreign shipbuilding port fees that go into effect this fall.

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Please note: This transcript has not been edited.

Lydia Johnson: Welcome to Agri-Pulse Newsmakers, where we aim to take you to the heart of Ag policy. I’m your host, Lydia Johnson. Our guest this week is Cathy Burns, the president and CEO of the International Fresh Produce Association, who joins us to discuss the group’s MAHA report recommendations. Ag labor reform, and trade.

But first, here’s this week’s headlines.

The Agriculture Department projected a bin-busting corn harvest this week that could boost subsidy payments for farmers. In its first forecast, the season based on a survey of farms USDA see estimated farmers will produce a record 16.7 billion bushels of corn this fall. That includes an average corn yield at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, an increase of nine and a half bushels over last year’s crop. However, the report estimated a 30 cent lower season average price for this year’s corn crop at $3.90 per bushel. That could trigger significantly higher commodity program payments.

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin urged machinery manufacturers this week to update their equipment to prevent shutdowns when diesel exhaust fluid runs out. At the Iowa State Fair. Zeldin announced the new guidance will press equipment manufacturers to insure vehicles already in use can receive software changes to prevent sudden and severe power loss from the lack of diesel exhaust fluid. EPA regulations already require that new diesel on road trucks must be engineered to avoid power loss caused by a lack of diesel exhaust fluid.

The public will have to wait even longer for the release of the second Make America Healthy Again Commission report to be released. The white House confirmed this week that the Make Our Children Healthy Again strategy report was on track to be submitted to the President on August 12th. However, the public will have to wait until the schedules of the president and the various cabinet members who are part of the Commission can be coordinated for an official announcement, according to a white House spokesperson.

The commission’s recommendations are expected to push for changes in food industry practices and also inform the coming version of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Farm groups complained the initial MAHA report, released in May, was overly critical of pesticides and seed oils and ignored science, demonstrating their safety.

Cathy Burns is president and CEO of the International Fresh Produce Association. With the public awaiting the release of the second Make America Healthy Again Commission report. We asked her about IFPA’s recommendations and how those have changed since the first report was released.

Cathy Burns: If you think about Make America Healthy Again, I mean, we are like at the pinnacle of that, right? If you think about the impact of fruits and vegetables, so we know that Americans cannot be healthy without consuming fruits and vegetables. So health improves when produce consumption increases. It’s foundational to everything we do. So the, the the real important part is to increase access, affordability and intake of fruits and vegetables. And we’re hoping and expecting, quite frankly, that’s what the report says. We have been advocating for that. Since the first, report came out in terms of making sure that when we talk about Whole Foods that we’re talking about fresh fruits and vegetables and increasing the consumption of those. We have submitted actually all the way back, in March, we submitted eight recommendations. We’ve now, increased that to ten recommendations to the MAHA caucus, for consideration. So I’ll just cover off on a couple of them.

One is we, recommend making fruit and vegetables a, health care benefit. So specifically putting produce prescriptions in Medicare, Medicaid and VA, Medicare, Medicaid and VA health care as a covered benefit.

The other thing that we have recommended is we have a very successful fresh fruit and vegetable program, in schools, not all elementary schools are covered. It is our recommendation to have all elementary schools covered and increase that, ultimately to include middle and high schools.

And the last one, that has certainly been in the news over the last nine months is around snap. We understand, the, push for, for snap restrictions, but our recommendation is actually to have Snap incentives specifically around consuming consumption of fruits and vegetables. So incentives versus restrictions or incentives and restrictions. But we believe that could be a game changer for American health.

Lydia Johnson: And another when we look at, you know, your, suggestions for that first report versus the second, I saw any additional recommendations? Crop protection tools get added. Can you kind of elaborate on that one as well?

Cathy Burns: We definitely added to associated with actually added crop insurance and regenerative agriculture as well. Specifically as it relates to crop insurance, I mean, our, our farmers, our growers need tools in order to successfully, produce their products. And you take those tools away. We’re going to continue to see the depletion of American farms across this country. So we obviously all our recommendations are safe and science based. And we thought it was really important for, the produce industry in particular to weigh in on that as well.

Lydia Johnson: And you began to mention but another tenant of the MAHA movement has been the push to get states to stop Snap recipients from purchasing junk food, candy, soda, things of that nature. But you guys actually have an opportunity with snap choice. Can you elaborate a little bit more? A little bit more on that?

Cathy Burns: Yeah. I mean our, our in going philosophy is, just because you restrict junk food doesn’t mean people are going to buy fruits and vegetables. They may buy the next worst thing for them. Certainly understand the administration’s, orientation towards that. But as, as IFPA representing the fresh produce and floral industry in particular, we believe incentives and we have data to show that when people consume more fruits and vegetables, they actually do get healthier. We have it with produce prescriptions. We have it with FFPP we have it with Gus now. So we have just behavioral over years showing, that Americans get healthier when they eat more fruits and vegetables. So why don’t we incent people to buy more fruits and vegetables? As opposed to just restrictions?

Lydia Johnson: Raids of agricultural businesses have occurred across the country. We asked Cathy Burns, the president and CEO of the International Fresh Produce Association, why those raids are concerning for both the agriculture and food industries.

Cathy Burns: It’s no secret we have a broken labor system, and it really is a threat to the U.S. economy. So 50% of, fresh produce expenses are labor. In some cases, farmers are investing their entire paycheck in labor. An example is a single bin of apples a decade ago. Cost $84, to produce. Now it’s $191. That’s over one decade. So what we need is obviously meaningful, reform. Because if not, we’re going to have fewer, fresh, fewer American, fruit, fresh fruits and vegetables on store shelves. And we’re going to continue to see farms go out of business. We’re already seeing it, actually. If you look at fresh fruit inputs or imports from 2007 to 2021, we were importing 50% of our fruit. We’re now at 60% of our fruit. And for vegetables, we were at 20%. And now we’re up to 38%. So it’s urgent. The call is urgent in the first place. Let’s address the, H-2a reform, specifically and the opportunity to expand, H-2a programs to all growers, not just seasonal growers. That’s literally job one. The Trump administration actually has shown a great willingness to work with us. Secretary Brooke Rollins, and Secretary Lawrence Chavez-DeRemer have worked to decrease the efficiencies and really are listening to the industry. But only Congress, has the power to really attack and pass comprehensive immigration reform. So the longer they wait, the more American farms will end up disappearing.

Lydia Johnson: And, Cathy, grocery prices have modestly declined. But analysis from FMI, the Food Industry Association, suggests that tariffs could still raise prices again. Are you concerned about fresh produce prices rising because of tariff increases?

Cathy Burns: Yes, I think there are real consequences for what’s happening as it relates to to the impact of tariffs, both in terms of tariffs, both in terms of cost and affordability. What has shifted over the years is consumers expect year round availability of our products. So think about crops like berries or peppers or avocado or tropicals, commodities that we can’t grow year round here domestically. And so in those seasonal gaps, we need to have access to those products. I would expect to see higher prices on, fresh fruits and vegetables. I would expect to see them in the winter and the early spring. When U.S. production is somewhat limited, forecasts are showing it could be as high as 5% for the fresh produce industry, where overall grocery is around 2.6%. In fact, Yale Budget Lab just came out with a report that overall food prices may increase 3.2% in the long run on the short term and 2.9% in the long run. And if you think about bananas and pineapples, coconuts, tropicals, things that we don’t grow here in the U.S. just makes it challenging when you put tariffs on those. And ultimately those costs do need to be passed on to the consumer, which ultimately raises the prices for consumer. Our bigger concern is the impact that that could have on consumption, as those prices continue to raise. It’s not just on the product, though, obviously, farms, it extends beyond the product. If we look at fertilizer, you know, input costs like fertilizer or packaging. So you’re putting costs on costs on top of costs. And at the end of the day, IFPA is expected from its members to drive the consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables, or reducing barriers to do so. So right now, our efforts are really on the reduction of the barriers to do so. So we’ve asked the Trump administration for three things.

One, protecting USMCA, which they have done. And we certainly appreciate that. But now we need, our, our neighbors, both Mexico and Canada, to also protect USMCA and the tenants of that.

Secondly, we have asked for full exemption of our products. And this is exemption of our products for import coming into the U.S., but also exports into, countries like the EU and Canada.

And then lastly, we encourage both the administration and other countries governments to come to the table to negotiate and try to get us out of the situation that we’re in right now with some of these tariffs.

Lydia Johnson: We’ll be back with more Agri-Pulse newsmakers. But first, Ali Herring looks at this year’s record breaking projected corn harvest. And what this means for farmers in this week’s Ag by the numbers.

Allie Herring: USDA is projecting corn production in the US this fall to reach nearly 17 billion bushels, a record high. The department also is estimating the average corn yield in 2025 at a record breaking 188.8 bushels per acre. This larger harvest is predicted to make corn stocks rise to just over 2 billion bushels, the largest supply since the 2018 to 2019 marketing year. Meanwhile, USDA has also lowered its forecast for the average price for this year’s crop, dropping $0.30 to $3.90 per bushel. The estimated average price for the 2024 corn crop is $4.30. Should these estimates be realized, the combination of a large corn harvest and falling prices could trigger significantly higher commodity program payments for corn farmers across the country for Agri-Pulse, I’m Allie Herring.

Lydia Johnson: Welcome back. Dozens of U.S. trading partners are seeing higher tariffs after President Trump’s August 1st negotiating deadline passed, and USDA has now projected a record corn crop this fall. We’re joined by Dan Bossie from Agri Resource Company and Becky Rasdall from the International Dairy Foods Association on our panel today. I want to begin with USDA report, Dan, that says farmers will produce a record 16.7 billion bushels of corn this fall. What were your takeaways from that report?

Dan Basse: It’s wow. I mean, it’s, it’s quite a report. I mean, when you look at us, corn yield at a record 180 8.8, and then they found an additional 2 million acres. You put it all together, and we have a corn crop that’s bigger this year than total supplies of United States. Last year, including Kerry. And so we’ve got an amount of corn coming. I’m sure when we look at storage capacity for the Midwest, should this number, this yield number be right? We are going to be strange. We’re going to be looking at 92% of U.S. storage capacity being utilized. So for the farmer it means, unfortunately, lower prices, very weak cash basis levels, if you’re a grain farmer, but if you’re a livestock farmer, it means opportunity, because there’s going to be some very cheap feed rates as we look over the next 9 to 12 months.

Lydia Johnson: Very large global stockpiles as well, and how our tariffs and those uncertainties about exports to China and elsewhere, you know, affecting commodity markets as a whole right now.

Dan Basse: Well, as I think about the, the trade aspect of things, I keep watching every week for the arrival of China as being a soybean buyer. This is the week that China normally steps forward in the last couple of years. China step forward is being a significant buyer right after the USDA crop report. So if they don’t do it this year, I think it’s very telling. So far we have zero sales on the books to China. Our biggest export customer for soybeans. I’m hearing at least from my contacts, whether it’s in Asia or the United States, that China is not even calling right now asking for price offers. And that bothers me. In fact, some of the Chinese clients would tell me that, the Chinese have been told not to buy U.S. soybeans. So right now they’re buying in South America. They bought about 6.5 million metric tons from Brazil for October. That’s the heart of our export program and are now trying to buy cargoes for November. So whether China’s, posturing for trade negotiation and wanting to use US purchases as leverage or the lack thereof will be interesting to watch. But I’m becoming more and more concerned that China’s a no show in the US export scene, at least for, soybeans, a key ingredient for the US farmer as we head into harvest.

Lydia Johnson: And, Becky, I want to bring you into the conversation as well. Dozens of U.S. trading partners were hit with higher tariffs after President Trump’s August 1st negotiating deadline passed. Know with your previous roles, negotiating the China Phase one deal. And, excuse me, the China Phase one agreement and USMCA. How do you see this round of trade negotiations being different?

Becky Rasdall: And, you know, what’s your view of the trade landscape right now? Yeah, you know, this is a really unique period that we’re in. Typically in the past year, we’ve had full agreement negotiations of multiple chapters. A full suite of, colleagues from across the agencies, all backgrounds of government coming together, negotiating every topic, and tandem. And so to have these, really shortened agreements that are, under tremendous time pressures and also, shortened in scope and not a full set of obligations is, just a very unusual time. Not really comparable to anything in the past, in my opinion. Even that comparable to China phase one, which was, pretty comprehensive agreement some time ago.

Lydia Johnson: Canada and Mexico are two of the top trading partners for U.S. dairy products. But the discussion about tariffs. We asked Becky Rasdall from the International Dairy Foods Association what the dairy sector’s priorities will be in renegotiating the USMCA trade agreement.

Becky Rasdall: Yeah. You know, I think we haven’t been, quiet that, we feel the obligations, that Canada committed to at the start of yesterday haven’t really worked for dairy. That was a concern over the course of the reorganization of NAFTA, specifically Canada’s track administration and their pricing of dairy products. So we had quite a lot of provisions for both in USMCA. We considered not a win at the time. And unfortunately, I think in both areas, we feel like Canada really has, subverted the intent of the obligations and not, really followed them. So for us, that’s a key priority. And in any, renegotiation and prospects moving forward.

Lydia Johnson: And, Dan, I’m curious, farm country started off the year worried about, new trade wars. Are farmers, do you think better off or worse off with with the trade negotiations that the president has made so far?

Dan Basse: Well, it’s hard to say yet. We we don’t know. I mean, I’m a little bothered that these trade negotiations have been broad. They’ve not been specific, except for maybe like wheat to Bangladesh or something like that. So as we look forward, you know, I do believe there’s going to have to be a measure of accountability. As we said today, these agreements not being put on paper is something, as an analyst that I think about, I, I just kind of shake my head of the billions that are involved. That being said, though, let’s hope that everything does come together, but it’s still too early to make a consensus. As an economist saying that these trade agreements have been good or bad. We’ll know that in the next 6 to 9 months. But here today, it’s just too early. We’ve only got one from the UK that maybe is focused on ethanol, but that will take some time, I believe, to get some shipments on the books. But everything else, we’re waiting for China. I think China’s the big gorilla in the room. And whatever happens with it after this extension, now 90 day extension will be very key longer term. I’m watching China. That’s that’s a key ingredient here.

Lydia Johnson: And Becky, I want to get your thoughts on that as well. I mean, do you believe that farmers are better off or worse off with the with the trade deals that we’ve seen so far?

Becky Rasdall: You know, I, I mean, I don’t disagree with Dan’s assessment, but I also think, you know, coming out of four years of no new negotiations or agreements to speak of, it’s certainly better to have something to be talking about and working towards. As you know, there is an export dependent commodity in the United States. The export about 18% of what we have, what we produce, and we can’t consume it all That’s a similar story to a lot of U.S. agriculture. So we need more competitive terms for exports, worldwide. And this is the best chance we’ve had to achieve that in the past several years. So we’re optimistic. But it is still pretty early to tell. As all of these negotiations are pretty much still pending.

Lydia Johnson: And as we wrap up here, Becky, I want to get your thoughts on the foreign shipbuilding port fees that will go into effect this fall. I mean, how could that impact the ag and dairy sectors, and could there be any exemptions for agriculture?

Becky Rasdall: I understand the administration’s objective. I think a lot of us in agriculture do. We certainly understand the desire to reassure some of our, manufacturing sectors in the United States. But, you know, that’s a process that takes time. And, I think this administration’s did a good job of trying to take agriculture’s concerns into account, like you saw them, revise their initial proposal to, exempt certain bulk, shipments that, you know, there’s a lot of agriculture that does ship in containerized form, not the least of which is, dairy. And so we’re we’re pretty concerned. So this is, something where we would be likely to see carriers pass on these, to shippers, and there would be no real way to stop that. I mean, that’s that kind of behavior. And Covid era is why we had the Ocean Shipping Reform Act come about to create transparency of billing and accountability for billing practices. And in a certain respect, I think this puts us a little bit, back to where we started with those kinds of practices. So there’s a lot of ways to deal with that, you know, especially as we think about, agriculture needing to be exported. Maybe there’s a discount available for, for any, China built or China registered ships that do, take U.S. agricultural exports upon departure or something like that. There’s a lot of ways to sort of brainstorm a creative solution that doesn’t, put us agricultural, trade in peril.

Lydia Johnson: We’ll be right back with a look at the week ahead. But first, Allie herring looks at which state standards see the most funding in the first round of payments from the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program. And this week’s map it out.

Allie Herring: The first round of funding from the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program is beginning to roll out to producers across the country to help cover losses related to natural disasters. In recent years. This program will provide just over $16 billion in funding to producers dispensed to farmers in two stages. Producers from Nebraska, Kansas and Iowa stand to receive the most aid from this program. Farmers in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Illinois and North Carolina could also receive significant funding based on their eligibility. Stage one of the program will address crop losses that can be measured based on crop insurance indemnities, or non insured Disaster Assistance Program payments. Stage two funding is projected to open in mid-September and will apply to producers with losses for which they did not receive indemnity payments for Agri-Pulse, I’m Allie Herring.

Lydia Johnson: Thanks for joining us for another episode of Agri-Pulse Newsmakers. Both the House and Senate are out of session for August recess. They’ll return to Washington after Labor Day. Tune in next week and check our website any time for the latest developments on all things food, farm and field policy for Agri-Pulse I’m Lydia Johnson. Thanks for watching.

Agri-Pulse is a trusted source in Washington, D.C., with the largest editorial team focused on food and farm policy coverage.