Estimates of 2024 ARC-CO and PLC Payments

By Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Henrique Monaco, and Carl Zulauf

Support from the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agriculture Risk Coverage, county option (ARC-CO) programs for the 2024 crop year are currently being processed and distributed by the Farm Service Agency. Payments from PLC are expected to be triggered for peanut and seed cotton base acres enrolled in that program, while ARC-CO payments are expected in many counties for base acres of most crops if they were enrolled ARC-CO. Total PLC and ARC-CO support for 2024 is estimated to approach $2.6 billion for 2024, with 89% of total payments from ARC-CO.

Estimated PLC and ARC-CO Payments for 2024

Estimates of PLC and ARC-CO program payments by covered commodity are provided in Table 1. Total PLC and ARC-CO payments are estimated to be $2.587 billion for 2024. These payment estimates account for the 85% payment factor but were not adjusted for any applicable sequestration.

PLC payments are estimated to be triggered for just two covered commodities for 2024 – peanuts and seed cotton. Total PLC outlays are estimates at just under $295 million. Peanut base acres enrolled in PLC are estimated to receive an average payment rate of $19.74 per base acre, totaling $45 million in outlays. PLC payments to seed cotton are estimated to be nearly $250 million, or an average payment rate of $44.32 per base acre.

ARC-CO payments for the 2024 crop year are estimated to reach nearly $2.3 billion. ARC-CO payments on corn base acres are estimated to be nearly $1.3 billion (national average payment rate of $18.28 per base acre). ARC-CO payments for enrolled soybean base are estimated at $618 million (average payment rate of $13.04 per base acre). Payments for wheat are estimated to be nearly $154 million ($5.02 national average payment rate per base acre). As is usual, ARC-CO payments are estimated to be triggered in some counties for nearly all covered commodities. Exceptions include crambe, rapeseed, and safflower. ARC-CO county-level payment rates for each commodity vary considerably from the national averages reported in Table 1. Payments on corn and soybean base acres are discussed further below.

Corn

Estimated ARC-CO payments are based on a $4.24 per bushel MYA price for 2024, which is 12.6% below the 2024 ARC-CO benchmark price of $4.85. ARC-CO payments for corn in 2024 occur in counties with final county yields that are 2% or more below the county’s 2024 ARC-CO benchmark yield.

Table 2 reports ARC-CO payment estimates for corn for states with at least 500,000 base acres enrolled in ARC-CO for 2024. ARC-CO payments for corn in Minnesota total more than $373 million, with payments averaging nearly $50 per base acre. Total ARC-CO payments for corn are estimated to exceed $100 million in Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa. Average payment rates per acre exceed the national average of $18.28 per acre in the Midwest states of Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio, Kentucky, and Kansas as well as many states outside the primary production region for corn in the US. Average payment rates are below the national average in many of the major corn producing states such as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, and both North and South Dakota.

Figure 1 illustrates estimated ARC-CO payment rates for corn at the county-level across the U.S. Corn yields above trend levels in most counties in the Corn Belt states of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana result in few payments. Counties outside the Corn Belt states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana are where payments are more common and larger in size on a per acre basis.

Soybeans

Estimated ARC-CO payments for soybeans are based on a $10.00 per bushel MYA price for 2024, which is 10% below the 2024 ARC-CO benchmark price of $11.12. ARC-CO payments for soybeans in 2024 occur in counties with final county yields that are 4% or more below the county’s 2024 ARC-CO benchmark yield.

Table 3 reports ARC-CO payment estimates for soybeans for states with at least 500,000 base acres enrolled in ARC-CO for 2024. Average payment rates are above the national average of $13.04 in the Midwest states of Minnesota, Ohio, South Dakota, Kansas, Kentucky, and Wisconsin as well as in Mississippi, and Tennessee. Average payment rates in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, and North Dakota are below the national average.

Figure 2 illustrates estimated ARC-CO payment rates for soybeans at the county-level across the U.S. Similar to corn, payments are not triggered in most counties across Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. Yields were sufficiently below trend to trigger payments in many counties with soybean base acres outside of the Corn Belt region.

Discussion

Commodity program support for the 2024 crop year will be provided from both the PLC and ARC programs.  FSA is currently processing and issuing ARC and PLC payments to producers with enrolled based acres. PLC payments are expected for enrolled peanut and seed cotton base acres.  ARC-CO payments will occur for some counties for most covered commodities.  For corn and soybeans, ARC-CO payments will occur for counties where final FSA county yields are 2% and 4% below county benchmark yields, respectively. Counties triggering payments on corn and soybean base tend to be outside the Corn Belt states of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.

Total ARC and PLC support is estimated to approach $2.6 billion.  This is in addition to the $10 billion in Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) payments and the 2024 portion of $20 billion in disaster assistance authorized through the American Relief Act of 2025 being issued through the Emergency Livestock Relief and Supplemental Disaster Relief Programs (ELRP and SDRP), and net support through the federal crop insurance program (for more discussion on 2024 crop year assistance see the farmdoc daily article from Oct. 16, 2025).

Margins are projected to continue to be tight, and in many cases negative, for major row crop producers for 2024, 2025, and 2026. Support from the ARC and PLC programs, as well as the ad hoc assistance provided through ECAP, ELRP, and SDRP, should be considered as the Trump administration and Congress continue to consider additional rounds of ad hoc assistance for producers for 2025. A primary concern with additional substantial payments is their potential role in contributing to even higher production costs for producers.

Next week we plan to provide estimates of 2025 ARC and PLC program support for the larger acreage commodities following the anticipated release of the November WASDE report coming up on Friday Nov. 14th.

Data Note

Payment estimates are based on the following data items available from the Farm Service Agency’s ARC and PLC Data website:

• Finalized 2024 MYA prices for wheat, barley, oats, peanuts, dry peas, lentils, canola, flaxseed, and rapeseed.
• Projected 2024 MYA prices (as of Sept. 12, 2025) for crambe, sesame seed, seed cotton, and all rice types.
• Published county-level average PLC yields (for PLC payments) and 2024 county-level yields determined by FSA (for ARC-CO payments).
• County-level base acreage enrollment by commodity by program (ARC-CO and PLC) for 2024
• Effective references prices (for PLC) and published county-level benchmark revenues (for ARC-CO).

The 2024 MYA prices for corn, soybeans, sorghum, chickpeas (large and small), sunflower seed, mustard seed, and safflower were obtained from the National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) quickstats database as of Nov. 10, 2025.

Estimates of 2024 ARC-CO and PLC Payments was originally published by Farmdoc.