Dry Soils Threaten Strong Ohio Crops; Rains Boost South Dakota

By Julie Ingwersen

GRAND ISLAND, Nebraska, Aug. 18 (Reuters) – The production potential of Ohio’s corn crop is the highest in at least 22 years, scouts on the annual Pro Farmer tour of top U.S. producing states found on Monday, but dry conditions could limit yields by the time the autumn harvest rolls around.

Meanwhile, corn yield potential in South Dakota is the highest since 2020, with plenty of moisture to aid crop development, tour scouts said.

Grain traders are watching to see whether the four-day crop tour, which began Monday and crosses seven top U.S. corn and soybean states, will support the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Aug. 12 forecast for a record-large corn crop.

The government’s forecast pushed benchmark December corn futures CZ25 on the Chicago Board of Trade to life-of-contract lows last week, although prices have since stabilized.

Scouts on the first day of the tour projected the Ohio corn yield at 185.69 bushels per acre (bpa), above the tour’s 2024 average of 183.29 and the three-year crop tour average of 180.47 bpa.

The yield figure was the highest for Ohio in records dating to 2003, said Emily Carolan, the tour’s data analyst.

Still, with the harvest still weeks away, some questioned whether Ohio crops would reach their potential.

“The crop looked pretty good, but it’s drying out. We saw a lot of cracks in the ground,” said Lane Akre, an economist leading the tour’s eastern leg. “We will need some additional rains to push this crop to the finish line,” Akre said.

The tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the amount of soybean pods per 3-by-3-foot square in Ohio at an average of 1,287.28 pods, up from last year’s average of 1,229.93 and above the three-year average of 1,204.83 pods.

For South Dakota, the tour projected the corn yield at 174.18 bpa, up from 156.51 in 2024 and the three-year crop tour average of 144.13 bpa. The estimate was the tour’s highest for the state since its 2020 estimate of 179.24 bpa.

The tour estimated South Dakota’s average soybean pod count in a 3-by-3-foot square at 1,188.45 pods, also the highest since 2020. The estimate was above last year’s tour average of 1,025.89 pods and the three-year average of 970.10 pods.

Scouts encountered mud in some South Dakota fields, indicating moisture that should bolster corn and soybean development in the weeks before harvest.

“That (moisture) will carry the crop a long way,” said Sherman Newlin, an analyst with Risk Management Commodities who is on the tour.

(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen in Grand Island, Nebraska; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Rashmi Aich)