3 Big Things Today, Aug. 14, 2025

1. Corn Futures Decline in Overnight Trading

Corn futures were lower in overnight trading amid forecasts for record U.S. yield and production and on favorable weather forecasts. 

The USDA this week said it now expected corn yield of 188.8 bushels an acre and production of 16.742 billion bushels, both record highs. 

That’s up from the previous forecast for yield of 181 bushels an acre and production of 15.705 billion bushels. 

Stockpiles at the end of the 2025/2026 marketing year are now pegged at 2.117 billion bushels versus the July outlook for 1.66 billion bushels, USDA said in its report.

Conditions have been favorable for much of the growing season, leading to lofty prospects for crops. 

The National Corn Growers Association said in a statement after this week’s supply and demand reports from USDA that a record crop would further hurt farmers who are already facing a financial crisis. 

“Corn growers are already marketing their corn for extremely low prices, and this massive projected corn supply without market-based solutions to increasing corn demand is already causing corn prices to fall further,” NCGA president Kenneth Hartman Jr. said in a statement. 

NCGA is calling on Congress to pass E15 legislation allowing sales year-round, and for the Trump administration to secure trade deals at a faster pace to open new markets for U.S. corn. 

Also weighing on prices overnight is favorable weather forecast for parts of the Corn Belt. 

Rain is expected in parts of western Iowa and counties in South Dakota and Minnesota this afternoon. 

About 72% of U.S. corn was in good or excellent condition at the beginning of the week, the USDA said. That’s down from 73% a week earlier but ahead of the 67% that earned top ratings at the same point a year earlier. 

Some 68% of soybeans were in good or excellent condition as of Sunday, also down by a percentage point week to week but on par with the year-earlier ratings, USDA said. 

Corn futures for December delivery dropped 4¢ to $3.93¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. 

Soybean futures for November delivery lost 6¼¢ to $10.38 a bushel. Soymeal was up $1 to $298.30 a short ton and soybean oil plunged 0.74¢ to 52.7¢ a pound.

Wheat for September delivery fell 3½¢ to $5.03 3/4 a bushel, while Kansas City futures were down 4¢ to $5.02¾ a bushel. 

2. Ethanol Output Rises, Stocks Fall to Lowest This Year

Ethanol output rose week-to-week while inventories declined to the lowest level since mid-December, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. 

Production of the biofuel increased to an average of 1.093 million barrels per day in the week that ended on Aug. 8, the agency said. 

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, output rose to an average of 1.034 million barrels a day, up from 1.021 million the week prior. 

Gulf Coast production increased to 28,000 barrels a day from 27,000 barrels a week earlier, EIA said. Rocky Mountain output rose to 11,000 barrels from 9,000 the previous week. 

East Coast production, meanwhile, was down by a thousand barrels to 12,000 a day, on average, and West Coast output dropped to 9,000 barrels from 10,000 the week prior. 

Ethanol inventories in the week that ended on Aug. 8 were reported at 22.649 million barrels, down from 23.756 million the week prior. 

That’s the smallest level for stocks since the seven days that ended on Dec. 13, EIA said in its report. 

3. Hot Weather Forecast for Nebraska, South Dakota

Heat advisories have been issued for much of central and eastern Nebraska and some counties in southern South Dakota, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Heat indexes in central Nebraska are expected to hit as high as 110°F tomorrow and 107°F on Saturday, the agency said. 

Values in parts of South Dakota will hit 104°F this afternoon. 

People working outside are advised to drink plenty of water and try to stay out of the sun, NWS said. 

Hot weather is also in store for parts of northern Illinois where indexes will top 100°F starting tomorrow. The heat is forecast to last into the middle of next week, the agency said.