What Farmers Need to Know Before the August WASDE Report

The August USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is due Tuesday, Aug. 12. Going into the report, here is what farmers need to know about the U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat markets, and what Grain Market Insider will be looking for in the updated balance sheets.

The July WASDE report showed U.S. old-crop corn carryout decreasing by 25 million bushels while old-crop soybean stocks were unchanged. The new-crop ending stocks estimate for corn decreased by 90 million bushels, soybean ending stocks increased by 15 million bushels, and wheat stocks declined by 8 million bushels. 

The August WASDE is the first crop report that uses National Agricultural Statistics Service data to estimate yield for corn and soybeans. The data is primarily driven by farmer surveys (14,000–15,000), includes satellite imagery data, and relies less on historical models. Also, production estimates are to incorporate acreage data from the USDA Farm Service Agency.

Corn Market Expectations

Over the past month, export inspections have remained strong and continue to exceed the USDA’s projected pace for the 2024/2025 crop year. Inspections for old-crop corn are near 89% of the current USDA estimate, compared with the five-year average 79.9% by this point in the year. The pace of export sales for the 2025/2026 crop tells a slightly different story. Sales commitments are 12.7% of the USDA’s current forecast for the crop year compared with the five-year average 14.6%. Ethanol production remains strong and continues to exceed the bushels needed to hit the current estimate.

Grain Market Insider thinks there is a possibility old-crop corn exports will increase in next week’s report. Corn use for ethanol production will likely be unchanged. The new-crop corn yield estimate will likely be adjusted higher by 2-4 bpa to reflect the favorable growing conditions this summer and above-average crop ratings. Higher production estimates for 2025/2026 would result in higher ending stocks.

Soybean Market Outlook

Soybean export inspections have remained steady and are 2% ahead of the five-year average pace needed to meet the current estimate for the 2024/2025 crop year. Export sales of the 2025/2026 crop are off to a slow start, with sales at 6.4% of the current estimate compared with the five-year average of 17.2% by this point. Soybean crush for June was 197 million bushels, down from 204 million in May but up 8% compared with June 2024. The pace of soybean crush remains on pace to meet the current estimate.

With the pace of old-crop export inspections slightly ahead of historical data, Grain Market Insider believes a slightly higher export estimate and lower ending stocks for old-crop soybeans is possible in the August report. New-crop ending stocks will likely be adjusted higher due to a slightly higher production estimate by ½-1 bpa. Because it is very early for the 2025/2026 crop, we expect demand estimates to be near unchanged.

Considerations for the Wheat Market 

Since early July, export sales for the 2025/2026 crop year have remained firm. The current sales pace of 41.3% of the USDA’s current estimate for the crop year is ahead of the five-year average of 35.2%. Export inspections are also firm at 14.3% of the current estimate compared with the five-year average of 13.6%. Grain Market Insider expects overall production to be unchanged or slightly higher. Grain Market insider does not expect any major adjustments to ending carryout estimates.

Historical Patterns and Statistical Perspective

Based on data from 2000–2023, Grain Market Insider’s internal research indicates market volatility on the August WASDE report day tends to be above average for corn, soybeans, and wheat. 

For corn, the August report has a 59% likelihood — tied for third highest of all reports — of triggering a positive reaction. In outright volatility, this report ranks third as well, with an average absolute change of 10¢. The average positive net change on report day is 8¢, while the average negative net change is 12¢.

For soybeans, the August report also has a 59% likelihood — the second highest of all reports — of triggering a positive reaction. The report ranks third for overall volatility, with an average absolute change of 18¢. The average bounce is 17¢ compared with an average decline of 20¢.

For wheat, the August report has a 59% likelihood of triggering a negative reaction and is also ranked third in volatility. Positive reactions generate an average gain of 9¢, while negative reactions trigger an average 11¢ loss. 

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About the Author: Eric Fransen is the Director of TFM360 Market Analytics at Total Farm Marketing. Eric’s calm, confident, and reasonable approach to farm marketing has been a safe harbor to his clients and the grain team alike since 2007, making him a welcome person to turn to in an often-unsettled market. Eric enjoys breaking down and explaining complex concepts and strategies to farmers as he helps them make decisions to help improve their bottom lines.