3 October Grain Market Fundamentals Farmers Can’t Afford to Miss

What’s Happened

In August, I wrote about five fundamentals to monitor regarding corn and soybean futures, as that month can be a significant turning point for corn and soybean prices. We discussed how prices were at a tipping point where either a rally may begin to occur, or a lack of friendly fundamental news could send prices capitulating lower. 

The fundamentals we monitored then led to a rally for August into September. Now is time to shift focus for the next big fundamentals to monitor as the calendar flips to October.

From a Marketing Perspective

Here are the three fundamentals to monitor this month:

1. What Are Farmers Saying About Harvest Results?

Summer pollination issues and Southern rust may take a toll on corn yields. Based on early harvest results expressed by clients and farmer chat on social media, the yield potential of this crop could be quite a bit lower than the industry is expecting. 

Will the USDA need to further lower yield potential on the October WASDE as Southern rust in corn might be the “black swan” for the 2025-2026 crop year? 

On the soybeans yield side, the industry is concerned the dry August in the eastern Midwest might have zapped record yield potential. Within weeks, we will have a better handle on the situation, as farmers begin harvest in earnest. 

Combines will tell the truth. And this situation should be monitored with the utmost caution and due diligence, as significantly lower yields could dramatically adjust the global balance sheet for corn and soybeans. 

2. Oct. 9 USDA WASDE Report

The most recent September USDA WASDE report did little to shed new light on the yield situation, with the USDA likely waiting for full harvest results before any major updating of balance sheets. 

In the September report, the USDA acknowledged potential pollination issues and complications from Southern Rust lurking in fields. The USDA did trim yields, but only modestly, as expected. Corn yield was estimated at 186.7 bushels per acre, down from 188.8 last month. The industry feels yield will likely be adjusted lower in October, but by how much? 

The same holds true for soybean yield. The USDA acknowledged the less-than-ideal August weather for the eastern Midwest and lowered the national average yield by 0.1 bushels per acre to 53.5 bushels per acre, but will there be another adjustment lower on the October report?

The demand side should be watched on the October report. Soybean export demand continues to lag. Will the USDA need to lower demand adjustment again? On corn, traders wonder if the total feed and residual use, now projected at 6.1 billion bushels, might be too high as well. Will that number be adjusted lower?  

3, Trade Negotiations With China
 

President Trump said he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea on Oct. 31.

Also important — and integral with Chinese trade — is to monitor the legal ramifications ahead for U.S. tariffs. The appeals court ruled recently that President Trump’s tariffs overstepped his presidential authority, and the case will be headed to the Supreme Court for review. It will not be reviewed until early November. 

The implications are countries still negotiating the details of their trade deal, including China, are more likely to drag their feet with negotiations hoping the court will strike tariffs down. If the Supreme Court does rule against the president, countries that have been paying tariffs may ask for refunds.

Prepare Yourself

Grain marketing has many moving parts. You should consider watching them all, balancing them accordingly and being ready to capture market opportunities and manage risk. The month of October will only add more news to the mix.

Fundamental news continues to shift weekly. Consider preparation to act on pricing opportunities as they become available. Try to have action plans ready for whatever market scenario unfolds. Remember, marketing is how you get paid for your hard work. Prices can turn on a whim. Be confident and ready.

If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or visit totalfarmmarketing.com for more information. 

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