3 Big Things Today, Sept. 17, 2025

1. Soybean Futures Lower Overnight on Harvest Pressure

Soybean futures were lower in overnight trading as the U.S. harvest rolls on amid favorable weather in much of the Corn Belt. 

Five percent of U.S. beans wee in the bin at the start of the week, up from the prior five-year average of 3%, the Department of Agriculture said in a report. About 41% of the crop was dropping leaves, just ahead of the average of 40% for this time of year. 

Sixty-three percent of soybeans were in good or excellent shape, down a percentage point from the week prior. 

Dry weather in much of the Midwest will allow farmers to accelerate the harvest, though some precipitation is forecast for later this week in western growing areas that may slow crop drydown, said Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar. 

Rainfall will favor northwestern parts of the Corn Belt today and tomorrow and west-central areas on Friday, he said. 

Precipitation will be limited in the Delta region this week, which will encourage soybean and corn collections, though rain is forecast in the six- to 10-day outlook, Keeney said. 

U.S. producers are also harvesting their corn with 7% in the bin as of Sunday, on par with the average, USDA said. About 41% was mature, in line with the average for this time of year. 

About 67% of the corn crop was in good or excellent shape at the start of the week, down from 68% seven days earlier, the government said. 

Still, optimism surrounding trade talks with China underpinned prices in the overnight session.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to talk on a call Friday after the countries — the world’s two largest economies — said they reached a framework agreement to move social-video app TikTok to U.S. ownership. 

Soybeans for November delivery fell 4 1/2¢ to $10.45 1/4 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal gained 20¢ to $286.30 a short ton and soybean oil futures lost 0.61¢ to 52.59¢ a pound. 

Corn futures fell 1 1/4¢ to $4.28 1/4 a bushel. 

Wheat futures for December delivery declined 1/2¢ to $5.33 1/2 a bushel. Kansas City futures were down 1 1/4¢ to $5.22 1/4 a bushel. 

2. RFA `Cautiously Optimistic’ About EPA Proposals

The Renewable Fuels Association said it’s “cautiously optimistic” about the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to reallocate renewable volume. 

EPA said in a statement yesterday it would propose a 100% reallocation or a 50% reallocation for small refinery exemptions granted in full or part from 2023 to 2025. The agency in August granted those exemptions for more than 140 refineries. 

The proposals would address how to redistribute exempted blending volumes and potentially create a new rule forcing refiners to make up for the gallons that were exempted, something the biofuel industry has been seeking for quite some time. 

“While we continue to question whether any SREs (small refinery exemptions) for 2023-2025 are truly justified in the first place, we are encouraged that EPA is proposing to add the exempted volumes back to future RFS requirements for 2026 and 2027,” RFA President Geoff Cooper said in a statement. 

The proposals, RFA said, are proof that EPA recognizes that renewable identification numbers, or RINs, from the small refinery exemptions, which are credits used for compliance, may hurt markets and undermine production and use of renewable fuels. 

The government will hold a virtual public hearing on Oct. 1 concerning all proposals. 

“We support EPA’s proposed option to fully reallocate 2023-2025 SREs and believe such ana approach will ensure intended levels of renewable fuel consumption are maintained over the long-term,” Cooper said. 

3. Storms Forecast for Counties in Central Iowa

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in parts of central Iowa this afternoon with some potentially turning severe, according to the National Weather Service. 

Hail and gusty winds are the main threats associated with the storms, the agency said. 

“Periodic showers and storms are expected through today and tonight,” NWS said. “Locally heavy rainfall leading o the potential for minor urban and small-stream flooding is the main threat, though a few weak funnels can’t be ruled out.” 

Further north in parts of north-central South Dakota, showers are forecast for this afternoon and evening.

Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding in some areas today, and precipitation is expected to continue Thursday and Friday, the agency said.