3 Big Things Today, May 13, 2025

1. Grains, Soybeans Lower in Overnight Trading

Grain and soybean futures were lower in overnight trading after the USDA issued a lofty production outlook for corn. 

USDA forecast corn production for the 2025/2026 marketing year at 15.82 billion bushels on yield of 181 bushels an acre. That’s up from a February outlook for 15.585 billion bushels, though the yield outlook was unchanged. 

If realized, that would be up from the 14.867 billion bushels forecast for the 2024/2025 season, according to government data. Yield in the current marketing year is pegged at 179.3 bushels an acre. 

Corn stockpiles at the end of the 2025/2026 year are seen at 1.8 billion bushels, and while that’s up 27% year over year, it still missed forecasts compiled by Reuters for 2.02 billion bushels. 

Soybean output in the next marketing year was projected by USDA at 4.34 billion bushels on yield of 42.5 bushels an acre. That’s down modestly from the agency’s February outlook for 4.37 billion bushels on the same yield. 

The Ag Department projects soybean production in the current marketing year at 4.366 billion bushels on yield of 50.7 bushels an acre. 

Inventories at the end of the 2025/2026 marketing year are projected at 295 million bushels, down significantly from the trade forecast for 362 million bushels. 

Futures were also pressured overnight as corn and soybean planting in the U.S. remains well ahead of the prior five-year average. 

About 62% of the U.S. corn crop was sown as of Sunday, up from the average of 56% for this time of year, the agency said. Soybean planting was 48% finished at the start of the week, ahead of the 37% average, USDA said. 

About 28% of corn and 17% of the soybean crop had emerged from the ground, up from the averages of 21% and 11%, respectively. 

Corn futures for July delivery fell 4¾¢ to $4.43¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat futures lost 8½¢ to $5.06¾ a bushel, while Kansas City futures dropped 6¾¢ to $5.01¼ a bushel. 

Soybean futures for July delivery fell 4½¢ to $10.66¾ a bushel. Soymeal was down $1.90 to $296.20 a short ton, and soy oil added 0.44¢ to 50.36¢ a pound.

2. Export Inspections of Corn, Wheat Fall

Inspections of corn and wheat declined week to week while soybean assessments improved, according to data from the Ag Department. 

Corn inspections in the seven days that ended on May 8 totaled 1.22 million metric tons, the agency said. 

That’s down from 1.62 million tons the previous week, but higher than the 1 million tons examined for offshore delivery during the same week a year earlier. 

Wheat assessments were down to 405,170 metric tons from 411,811 tons the year prior, USDA said. Still, that’s up from 383,058 tons at the same point last year. 

Soybean inspections, meanwhile, rose to 426,077 metric tons from 333,654 tons the previous week, but down from the 433,116 tons inspected in the same week the previous year. 

Since the start of the marketing year on Sept. 1, USDA has inspected 43.7 million metric tons of corn for overseas delivery, up from 34 million tons in the same timeframe a year earlier. 

Soybean assessments since the beginning of September now stand at 43.9 million metric tons versus 39.5 million at the same spot last year, the agency said. 

Wheat inspections since the start of the grain’s marketing year on June 1 were reported at 20.3 million metric tons, up from 17.7 million during the same period the year prior, USDA said in its report. 

3. Red Flag Warnings Issued in Northern Corn Belt

Dry weather will persist in parts of the Dakotas and much of Minnesota, according to the National Weather Service. 

Red flag warnings have been issued for all three states and a couple counties in extreme northwestern Iowa, NWS said. 

Winds in eastern North Dakota will be sustained around 30 mph and gust up to 45 mph this afternoon, the agency said. Relative humidity will fall to about 20%. 

In central Minnesota, winds will range from 10–20 mph and gust up to 25 mph. Humidity will fall to 18% today. 

Thunderstorms are possible today in parts of central Indiana, NWS said. More storms are in the forecast for the area with severe weather possible Thursday, the agency said.