3 Big Things Today, June 12, 2025

1. Grains, Soybeans Little Changed Ahead of USDA Reports

Grain and soybean futures were little changed in overnight trading as investors square positions ahead of today’s supply and demand reports from the USDA.

Corn stockpiles in the 2024-2025 marketing year that ends on Aug. 31 will likely be forecast by USDA at 1.392 billion bushels, according to analysts polled by Reuters. That would be down from the May outlook for 1.415 billion bushels. 

Inventories in the 2025-2026 year probably will be seen by USDA at 1.792 billion bushels, the survey said, down from the previous month’s projection for 1.8 billion bushels. 

Soybean stocks in the current marketing year will likely be pegged at 351 million bushels, which would be up from the May forecast of 350 million bushels. 

Inventories at the end of next year are forecast in the Reuters poll at 298 million bushels, down from the previous outlook for 295 million bushels. 

Wheat stockpiles at the end of the 2024-2025 year that ended on May 31 will likely be projected at 842 million bushels, up by a million bushels from the prior month’s forecast, and inventories at the end of the current marketing year will probably be reported at 924 million bushels, the Reuters survey said, up from 923 million forecast in May. 

Global inventories of corn in the 2025-2026 marketing year, meanwhile, may be reported by USDA at 278.8 million metric tons, up from the previous month’s forecast for 277.84 million tons, the poll said. 

Soybean stocks worldwide likely will be seen at 124.54 million metric tons versus the prior projection for 124.33 million. 

Wheat inventories will probably be forecast 265.06 million metric tons, little changed from the May outlook for 265.73 million, according to the Reuters survey. 

Corn futures for July delivery rose ½¢ to $4.37½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. 

Wheat futures gained ½¢ to $5.34¾ a bushel, and Kansas City futures were up 1¾¢ to $5.28 a bushel. 

Soybean futures for July fell 2¢ to $10.47 a bushel. Soymeal was up $2.30 to $296.50 a short ton and soy oil futures lost 0.21¢ to 47.81¢ a pound. 

2. Ethanol Production Surges to Record High

Ethanol output jumped to the highest on record last week, while inventories declined, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. 

Production of the biofuel increased to an average of 1.12 million barrels per day in the week that ended on June 6, the agency said. 

That’s up from 1.105 million barrels the week prior and the highest since record-keeping started in 2010. 

Output in the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, surged to 1.061 million barrels a day, on average, from 1.047 million a week earlier, EIA said. That’s also a record high. 

Gulf Coast production increased to 27,000 barrels a day, on average, from 26,000 barrels the previous week, and West Coast output rose to 10,000 barrels a day from 9,000 barrels. 

East Coast output was unchanged at 12,000 barrels per day, and Rocky Mountain production was steady at 11,000 barrels, the agency said. 

Ethanol inventories in the week that ended on June 6 totaled 23.734 million barrels. 

That’s down from 24.44 million the week prior and the lowest level since the week that ended on Dec. 27, EIA said in its report. 

3. Flood Watches Issued for Parts of Texas, Arkansas

Flood watches are in effect for much of eastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, and parts of southeastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana, according to the National Weather Service. 

Excessive runoff may lead to flash floods in parts of southwestern Arkansas as rain falls in the area, the agency said. 

Several rounds of precipitation are forecast for the area with the heaviest rains projected this afternoon and evening, NWS said. Heavy showers are expected again tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

As much as 7 inches of rain are expected in the region. 

“Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations,” the agency said. “Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.”