3 Big Things Today, July 2, 2025

1. Soybean Futures Higher in Overnight Trading

Soybean futures rose in overnight trading on reduced U.S. acreage and concerns about dry weather in the Delta region. 

Area planted with soybeans in the U.S. is expected to fall 4% year over year to 83.4 million acres, the USDA said in a report on Monday. That’s also down slightly from the March Prospective Plantings report. 

Acreage is forecast to decline in 25 of the 29 largest producing states. 

U.S. producers instead planted more corn whose area is forecast to grow 5% annually to 95.2 million acres, the agency said. 

Potentially adverse weather is also underpinning soybean futures this morning. 

Limited rain is expected for the rest of the week in parts of the U.S. Delta, allowing soil moisture to decline, said Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar. The loss of moisture will be especially pronounced in southern areas of the region. 

Drier weather in central areas of the Midwest also will sap soil moisture for soybeans and corn, though improvement is possible next week, the forecaster said. 

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 6¢ to $10.33¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal fell $1 to $286.60 a short ton and soy oil gained 0.75¢ to 54.43¢ a pound. 

Corn futures for December delivery fell 1½¢ to $4.20¼ a bushel. 

Wheat futures for September delivery rose 1½¢ to $5.50½ a bushel, while Kansas City futures gained ¾¢ to $5.32 a bushel. 

2. Brazil Soybean Area, Output to Increase

Farmers in Brazil will increase soybean planting and production in the 2025/2026 marketing year, according to an attaché report from the USDA. 

Area devoted to beans will increase to 49.1 million hectares (121.3 million acres) from an estimated 47.6 million acres in the current marketing year, the agency said. 

Production will rise to 176 million metric tons next year, up from 169 million in the 2024/2025 year and ahead of USDA’s June outlook for 175 million.

Planted area and output will both rise in the South American country amid favorable weather and technological advances, the attaché report said. 

By comparison, U.S. producers are expected to harvest 118.1 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 marketing year. 

Brazilian soybean exports are now seen at 114 million metric tons in the next marketing year amid increased port capacity and demand from China. 

“Domestic soybean processing is also expected to rise, fueled by livestock feed demand and biodiesel mandates, strengthening Brazil’s position in both international and internal markets,” USDA said in its report. 

3. Rain Forecast for Parts of North Dakota, Minnesota

Rainfall is expected in parts of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota today, though odds of severe weather are low, the National Weather Service said in a report early this morning. 

NWS gives a 1-in-5 chance of the storms turning severe throughout the day. 

“Coverage of storms will be isolated so many areas will not get anything,” the agency said. “But storms that do form are capable of producing hail to 1 inch and wind gusts (of) 60 mph.” 

Thunderstorms are expected to roll through the southern Plains where hard red winter wheat is growing, potentially bringing heavy rainfall and straight-line winds to the region. 

Showers are forecast Thursday through the holiday weekend, which may lead to flooding in some areas, NWS said.