3 Big Things Today, July 17, 2025

1. Grains are Negative Early Morning

Shortly after 6:00 a.m. CT, December corn was down 2½¢ at $4.21½ per bushel.

November soybeans were 1½¢ lower at $10.19 per bushel. December soymeal was $1.20 weaker to $282.30 a short ton, and December soy oil jumped 0.20¢ to 54.88¢ a pound.

September wheat markets were down in the early morning. CBOT wheat fell 4½¢ at $5.36¾ per bushel. KC wheat dropped 4¼¢ at $5.18½ per bushel. Minneapolis wheat decreased 1¢ at $5.80 per bushel.

“New crop corn and soybean contracts are 15–20¢ off the low hit on Monday. Is this just a technical bounce, or are we in the early stages of a change in trend?” Bob Linneman, Commodities Broker of Kluis Commodity Advisors said, “The 20-day moving average is within striking distance and will be a good indication of just how much momentum the bulls have as we enter the last half of July.”

2. Ethanol Inventories Reach Seven-Month Low

Ethanol production and inventories are down according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

Production increased to an average of 1.087 million barrels a day in the week that ended on July 11, the agency said.

That’s up from 1.085 million barrels the previous week.

In the Midwest, by far the largest producing region, output averaged 1.028 million barrels per day, down from 1.03 million barrels the week prior, EIA said. 

Gulf Coast production jumped to 28,000 barrels a day from 24,000 barrels a week earlier.

Rocky Mountain output maintained an average of 9,000 barrels a day, the same as the previous week. East Coast production was also unchanged at 12,000 barrels per day. 

The West Coast saw a slight decrease to 9,000 barrels from 10,000 the week before.

Ethanol inventories in the week through July 11 fell to 23.635 million barrels. The EIA said that’s down from 23.959 million a week earlier and the lowest since December 20, 2024.

3. A Cold Front and Thunderstorms on the Way

Thunderstorms are expected from the Northeast through the Midwest and central Plains according to the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

The NWS said the weather pattern looks to moderate temperatures after a cooler front passes through. However, ongoing storms could re-intensify and expand.

“A slow moving, sometimes quasi-stationary cold front stretching from the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic west through the Midwest and into the central and southern Plains will provide the focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorms the next couple of days.” The NWS said, “A moisture-rich airmass remains in place, providing the fuel for efficient, very heavy downpours and instability for severe weather.”

The NWS added temperatures will stay in the 70s in the Upper Mississippi Valley, but highs into the 80s and 90s will return to most locations outside of the Upper Midwest by Friday.