3 Big Things Today, Feb. 27, 2025

1. Soybean Futures Higher in Overnight Trading

Soybean futures were higher in overnight trading as the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s estimate for planting came in below industry expectations. 

USDA said at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum it expects U.S. producers in the 2025/2026 marketing year to plant 84 million acres with soybeans, missing trade forecasts for 84.4 million acres. 

That’s also down from the baseline set in October for 85 million and last year’s 87.1 million acres. 

Corn planting in 2025/2026 is seen at 94 million acres, above trade forecasts for 93.6 million. The government in October estimated planted area at 92 million acres, and growers last year planted corn on 90.6 million acres. 

Wheat area is now expected at 47 million acres, up from the estimate of 46.7 million and the October baseline of 46 million acres. Final planted area a year earlier totaled 46.1 million acres. 

Soybean production in the next marketing year is seen at 4.37 billion bushels on yield of 52.5 bushels an acre, USDA said this morning. Corn output is pegged at 15.585 billion bushels on yield of 181 bushels an acre. 

Wheat production is forecast at 1.926 billion bushels on yield of 50.1 bushels an acre, the government said. 

Soybeans for May delivery rose 6¢ to $10.47¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal added $1.30 to $303.80 a short ton, and soy oil gained 0.08¢ to 45.67¢ a pound. 

Corn futures rose ¾¢ to $4.94¼ a bushel. 

Wheat futures for May delivery fell 4½¢ to $5.75¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures lost 4¼¢ to $5.94¼ a bushel. 

2. Ethanol Production Falls, Inventories Surge

Ethanol output last week fell narrowly to the lowest in almost a month while inventories jumped to the highest level since 2020. 

Production of the biofuel decreased to an average of 1.081 million barrels a day in the week that ended on Feb. 21, according to the Energy Information Administration. 

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, output was unchanged week to week at 1.033 million barrels per day. 

Rocky Mountain output was also unchanged at 11,000 barrels a day, the agency said.

Gulf Coast production was down to 17,000 barrels a day from 19,000 barrels the week prior. West Coast production fell to 8,000 barrels from 9,000 the previous week, EIA said. 

The East Coast was the lone gainer for the week, rising to an average of 12,000 barrels per day from 11,000 barrels a week earlier. 

Ethanol inventories in the seven days that ended on Feb. 21 were reported at 27.571 million barrels, the government said. That’s up from 26.218 million the previous week and the highest level for stockpiles since April 17, 2020. 

3. Strong Winds, Low Humidity Forecast for Nebraska

Strong winds and low relative humidity will create tinderbox-like conditions in parts of central Nebraska heading into the weekend, according to the National Weather Service. 

Northwesterly winds are expected to gust up to 45 mph tomorrow, the agency said. 

“These winds, combined with low humidity and dry grasses, is expected to result in near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across the entire state,” NWS said. 

A high-wind watch has been issued for parts of eastern North Dakota and counties in western Minnesota, the agency said. 

Winds will be sustained from 30–40 mph and gust up to 60 mph. 

The “damaging winds” may knock down trees and power lines and some power outages are possible, NWS said.