3 Big Things Today, Aug. 21, 2025

1. Wheat Futures Higher on Technical Buying

Wheat futures were higher in overnight trading on technical buying and amid signs of demand for U.S. grain. 

Investors who were short the market, or had bet on lower prices, may have bought back contracts on indications that prices may be low enough to spur demand.

Overseas buyers have committed to buy 11 million metric tons of U.S. wheat since the start of the grain’s marketing year on June 1, according to data from the Department of Agriculture. 

That’s up 24% from the same period last year. 

Corn, whose sales since the start of its marketing year on Sept. 1 are up 26% year over year, also got a boost overnight on signs of demand. 

Colombia purchased 100,000 metric tons of U.S. corn and Mexico bought 125,741 tons, all for delivery tin the 2025-2026 marketing year that starts at the beginning of September. 

An unnamed buyer bought 124,000 metric tons of corn for delivery in the next marketing year, USDA announced on Monday. 

Exporters also said Mexico purchased 228,606 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery in the 2025-2026 season. 

The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export sales report this morning. 

Wheat for September delivery added 5 1/4¢ to $5.33 1/2 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures were up 3 1/4¢ to $5.26 1/2 a bushel. 

Corn futures for December delivery gained 1¢ to $4.05 a bushel. 

Soybean futures for November delivery fell 1/2¢ to $10.35 1/2 a bushel. Soymeal was down $1.30 to $295.90 a short ton and soybean oil added 0.28¢ to 51.73¢ a pound.

2. Ethanol Outut Drops to Lowest in Almost Three Months

Ethanol output dropped to the lowest level in almost three months while inventories eked out a small gain, the Energy Information Administration said in a report. 

Production rose to an average of 1.072 million barrels a day in the week that ended on Aug. 15, the agency said. That’s down from 1.093 million barrels the previous week and marks the lowest level for output since May 23.

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, production average 1.018 million barrels per day, down from 1.034 million the week prior. 

Gulf Coast output declined to 26,000 barrels per day, on average, from 28,000 a week earlier, EIA said. 

Rocky Mountain and West Coast production were both down by a thousand barrels to an average of 8,000 barrels a day. 

The East Coast was the lone region whose output didn’t fall as it was unchanged at 12,000 barrels a day for the second straight week, the agency said. 

Ethanol stockpiles, meanwhile, rose narrowly to 22.688 million barrels in the week through Aug. 15, up from 22.649 million barrels the previous week, EIA said in its report. 

The Trump administration may make an announcement as early as this week on the fate of dozens of pending waivers for small oil refineries that would, if granted, exclude them from having to meet the ethanol and biodiesel blending mandates, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources.

The Envirnmental Protection Agency in June proposed a renewable volume obligation (RVO) of 24.02 billion renewable identification numbers (RINS) for 2026, an 8% year-over-year increase. For 2027, the RVO for RINS would rise to 24.46 billion.

3. Thunderstorms Possible in South Dakota, Minnesota

Storms may be brewing from central South Dakota into west-central Minnesota, according to the National Weather Service. 

The area has a marginal risk of severe storms late this afternoon into tonight, the agency said. Winds gusting up to 60 mph and quarter-sized hail are the main concerns. 

Saturated soils are also a concern as runoff from the rainfall may lead to flooding. 

Thunderstorms are also possible starting tomorrow in parts of northern Illinois and continuing into mid-Saturday, NWS said.