Will There be a Summer Rally for Corn?

What’s Happened

With 2024-25 old crop corn ending stocks now at a significantly tight 1.415 billion bushels, old crop corn futures prices have maintained their upward price trend established in late August of 2024. 

However, in recent weeks, July 2025 corn futures have had a hard time rallying higher than $4.70 despite the friendly old crop ending stock data. That’s due to the large corn crop being planted in the U.S. this spring. 

The potential of a large 2025-26 crop is keeping the December 2025 futures prices in check for the moment, but history suggests a summer corn price rally for new crop corn futures is still a strong possibility.

With thin profit margins, producers need to do a great job of marketing. Let’s make an action plan to be ready for a potential summer rally.

From a Marketing Perspective

The USDA pegged the 2025-26 U.S. prospective corn planted acres at 95.3 million acres this spring, up from 90.6 million last year. 

Traders are aware of this potential for increased corn production, but so far they have shaken off the negative news as demand for U.S. corn is strong and there is plenty of summer weather to come. According to the May 2025 WASDE report, using 95.3 million acres and a record 181-bushel yield, the USDA pegs new crop ending stocks at 1.8 billion bushels. 

If a modest weather event should drop the yield to 177 bushels per acre (still an amazing number nationwide), the projected ending stocks for the 2025/26 crop year would drop to 1.45 billion bushels.

If you’re trying to decide when to pull the trigger on new crop corn sales, pay attention to the December corn seasonal chart. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the five and 15-year price patterns suggest having a portion of your new crop priced between Mother’s Day and Father’s Day may be a positive step on the marketing path.

Prepare Yourself

What can you do now to prepare? Consider placing cash target price orders with your elevator now to sell a percentage of your new crop corn should a rally occur in the coming weeks. 

Also, consider how you’re going to protect unpriced bushels of new crop corn on a rally. 

Many of you would be comfortable forward contracting up to half of your expected new crop production on a rally, but that leaves half your new crop unprotected from prices falling lower once the rally starts to fizzle. Work with your market advisor now to create a plan that may involve buying put options to protect a price floor, including budget and time value needed.

Get ready. Often, the summer price high occurs when you’re busy wrapping up spring planting and fretting over whether the corn crop will grow as the upcoming summer forecast may look hot and dry.

During those moments of uncertainty regarding crop production, the market often responds to size and weather scares and may trade higher. Be ready to capture the opportunity! Be disciplined. Remember, prices often come crashing down as fast (or faster) than when they rallied, leaving you with mere days or minutes to capture the rally.

If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or visit TotalFarmMarketing.com. 

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