Widespread Rain in Forecast; Farmers ‘Grateful for Every Drop’

The Midwest is expected to receive multiple rounds of widespread rain throughout the first week of November. Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, and Illinois are predicted to see the highest rainfall totals. 

Kathy Krafka Harkema, a fourth-generation corn, soybean, and livestock farmer in Eastern Iowa, said that the dry weather pattern has made for a smooth harvest but is posing concerns for soil moisture going into winter. Iowa’s harvest is running ahead of schedule, with 84% of corn harvested and 96% of soybeans harvested, according to the Crop Progress Report released on Oct. 28. Rain in the forecast is relieving some stress for farmers. 

“If you would’ve asked me two weeks ago, I would’ve been more concerned than I am now that we have rain in the forecast,” Krafka Harkema said. 

Replenishing Rains

Krafka Harkema said that drought conditions have made farmers grateful for every drop of rain they can get. Drought poses a “double-whammy” for producers throughout the country with both crops and livestock. For example, Ohio State Climatologist Aaron Wilson said he knows of some livestock producers hauling 60,000 gallons of water a month just to keep livestock alive. Krafka Harkema said rain is needed to replenish aquifers and private wells to get water to livestock. 

“You can cut back on washing your car, but animals and people need to drink, and water’s a daily part of life,” Krafka Harkema said. “More people recognize how precious water is to all of us, no matter what we do for a living.” 

Precipitation will dampen the concern of field fires caused by recent warm, dry, and windy weather in Iowa. Krafka Harkema said that Iowa isn’t typically a high fire risk, but that hasn’t been the case this fall. She heard reports of several fires in her county, and has friends who had fires get close to their farms. 

“That’s your life’s work and your livelihood that’s on the line,” Krafka Harkema said. 

Dennis Todey, director of the USDA Midwest Climate Hub, says the pattern of widespread rain has the “potential to improve our situation.” Although many places are tapped out on soil moisture, Todey assures that there is still time for soils to get recharged throughout the winter and spring.

“It’s not the end of the world if we don’t get soil moisture recharged soon, but it does make people feel better if we get some water back in the soil now,” Todey said.  

Temperature Outlook

The National Weather Service’s short-term temperature outlook also remains above average for most of the Midwest. Peter Boulay, assistant state climatologist for Minnesota, said 6-inch-deep soil temperatures have been “way above normal.” He said that on average, soil temperatures this time of year are typically in the upper 40s. They recently observed soil temperatures around 60 degrees and air temperature in Minnesota is running about 5 degrees warmer than average for October.

“We’re not seeing much in the way of winter, with no arctic blast coming, at least in the near term,” Boulay said.