What’s the Outlook for Corn Belt Weather as February Comes to an End?

Cooler temperatures are expected to subside across the Midwest during the last week of February, according to short-term climatological outlooks.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks Across the Corn Belt

With cooler-than-normal temperatures subsiding, Iowa State Climatologist Justin Glisan said short-term forecasts “generally show chances of unseasonably warm temperatures across the central and western Corn Belt.” 

Despite the warmer temperatures expected to impact some of the Corn Belt states, Glisan said precipitation is expected to be “near normal” for much of the Corn Belt. However, there is expected to be “a slight lean towards drier conditions from Missouri and southwest Iowa into Nebraska and Kansas,” Gilsan said.

Looking at the eight to 14 day weather outlooks, which encompass the first week of March, Glisan said colder temperatures are expected out west with near-normal temperatures to the east. Additionally, there’s a near-normal to slightly above normal likelihood of precipitation for much of the Corn Belt, Glisan said.

Low Pressure System to Develop Next Week

Peter Goble, assistant state climatologist at the Colorado Climate Center, said a low pressure system is likely to develop over the central US next week. There isn’t expected to be any arctic air behind that system, Goble said, adding that it isn’t likely to be a huge moisture producer.

Continued rainfall is expected for the states that have already seen the most moisture, Goble said. This includes Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and parts of Illinois. 

The above average precipitation expected for those states could lead to continued flooding and more difficult planting conditions this spring, Goble said.

Some States Should See Drought Relief, While Drought Persists In Others

There is also an expectation for above average precipitation in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Goble said. Rain could benefit these states as they’re currently dealing with abnormally dry to D2 severe drought conditions.

Drought conditions across the Dakotas, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Kansas are likely to persist into the spring months, Goble said, as a weak La Niña pattern remains. “However, we could see drought conditions improve markedly with the spring,” Goble said.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook — released on Feb. 20 and valid through May 31 — shows a continuation and development of drought conditions across Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, parts of Kansas, and much of Texas. 

The outlook shows that “continued drought expansion is favored for the Four Corners region, the south-central High Plains, and the western half of Texas due to a strong tilt towards below average precipitation.” 

La Niña Conditions Expected to Persist Into the Spring

While La Niña conditions are expected to remain dominant for the remainder of the winter months, Goble said it is likely to wane over the spring and summer months. “Even if La Niña conditions do wane,” Goble said, “there will be a lag.” This means it will be a few months before El Niño conditions take over, Goble said.