What to Watch for in the Markets This Season

September is my favorite month; March is a close second. Both are months in which I not only enjoy the change of season but I also watch for a change of trend. 

Let’s start by looking at last September. Every year, I watch for a low in September. It usually happens. (Two exceptions were 2012 and 2022, when prices put in major highs.) Late September or early October is usually when I recommend that livestock feeders book a six-month supply of corn and soybean meal.  

In 2024, the market news in September was as bearish as I can remember. The U.S. corn and soybean crops were large, with yield forecasts rising week after week. At the same time, U.S. exports were slow. But it was September; I had to tune out the bearish news and get ready to buy.

I also looked at the prices at which we were trading. Corn was down $1.50 from the prior year, and soybeans were trading $3 per bushel lower. I knew a lot of this bad news was “baked in,” so those prices wouldn’t go much lower. Also, I am a seasonal trader and knew September was not a time to get even more bearish. 

Autumn is also when I start watching for the right time to buy soybeans. Every year, I consider buying soybeans during the World Series in October. (That worked out great again in 2024, by the way.) So, in September, I shut out the news and worked with my charts to search for a low. 

Some of the characteristics I watch for at a low were developing:

1. Very narrow trading ranges. Corn would trade in a 3¢ daily range most days, and just an 8¢ range for the week. Soybeans would have an 8¢ daily range, and just 12¢–14¢ for the entire week. 

2. Strength in the cash market. As harvest moved into the central Corn Belt, cash basis bids started to improve. 

3. The last and best signal: Bull spreads started to narrow in corn and soybeans. 

Of course, I also want to be realistic. Seeing those chart signals does not always mean you find the exact low. The corn market bottomed out during the third week in August. The soybean market did not hit the final low until December. The corn buy recommendation worked great but was a little late. The soybean meal recommendation also worked but turned out to be early. But seeing the signals gave me the confidence to pull the trigger.

Now, it is March, and I am again watching for a major high and a change of trend in the next few months. I will now use some of those same chart analysis methods to get the last of my cash corn and soybeans sold at the right times. 

Last year, I made three sale recommendations to wrap up cash corn and soybean sales between April and June. I made those sales the third week of April, the third week of May, and the second week in June. Again, the timing was good, but not perfect. The first sale was a little early, the second sale was within 2% of the top, and the last sale was about 5% lower. These cash sales all looked great by August. 

Remember: Don’t try to be “perfect” and hit the absolute high or low. Just get the job done well and move on to the next decision. Trying to hit “perfect” leads to paralysis.

Each week that I made a cash sale recommendation, I also recommended some new-crop hedges. These were great hedges to deliver on at harvest. I wish I had done a larger percentage — maybe 50% or 60% instead of 30%. But it’s always so clear looking back, isn’t it? However, those hedges made a huge financial difference for my subscribers when they delivered on those contracts last fall.  

Yes, it is easy to look back. But what about looking ahead in 2025? With the new presidential administration, new cabinet members, and record commodity fund participation, I am getting ready for a very volatile year. 

Here are three signals I will watch this year when I am making decisions to complete cash sales and get more new-crop hedges in place. Note: As I am writing this article, I have 60%–80% of the cash 2024 corn and soybeans sold, and 20%–30% of the new-crop 2025 corn and soybeans hedged. 

First: Watch for a week when the news is bullish but prices post a week-over-week lower close. This can signal the bullish news is all built in. It will feel tough to sell at 1 p.m. on Friday, but it can sure feel good on Monday! 

Second: Watch the spreads among the different futures contracts. If the news is bullish and prices are moving higher — but the bull spreads stop working — then that is a big caution sign: The bull market is running out of steam. 

Third: Watch for a weekly close below the two previous weeks’ close. This again can be a tough decision on Friday, but it is one of the most reliable signals I watch for. 

Final thoughts and how I plan to do a better job in 2025 and you can too.Repeat after me: I will put in offers above the market to make some cash sales on the big rally days instead of making the sale after prices turn lower and I get the sell signal. Trying to pick a top is a dangerous game, especially in volatile times. But putting in offers is a reasonable and low-risk way to aim higher. If this works, you haven’t let a lot of money slip away into the Friday close. If it doesn’t, you make a new offer on Monday.

I will also get a larger percentage of the new crop sold using a combination of hedges and put options. And finally, if we get a good weather-scare rally in 2025, I will also get more of 2026 hedged ahead on that rally.

Let’s take advantage of the volatility that is sure to come in 2025, and have a good year.

Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance — whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies — is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice given will result in profitable trades.