What This Week’s ‘Whirlwind’ Tariff News Means for Farmers, Explained by Market Analysts

Trade wars and tariff news have dominated analyst commentary this week. Here’s what some of the leading commodity analysts in the industry have to say about the quickly changing situation.

For a full timeline of recent trade and tariff news, read A Timeline of Trump’s Trade Wars between U.S., Canada, Mexico, and China.

Where Are We Now?

All trade partners, except Mexico and Canada, have a 10% blanket tariff being charged on their imports. However, the additional reciprocal tariffs that were set to go into effect midnight Wednesday, April 9, have been put on hold for at least the next 90 days.

Reuters reported the 25% tariff on goods the U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada that are not covered under the region’s USMCA trade pact remains in effect. Energy and potash from the two countries will also continue to be tariffed at 10%.

“The right wing will tout this as a victory, issuing statements on how the tariffs worked and got people to the table, the left will say that President Trump blinked after the massive selloff in the equity markets and wanted to put a stop to the uninhibited selling of equities before people had a meltdown,” said the Thursday morning Commstock Report.

“We continue to see greater fear levels overseas than we do here in the States, which is understandable, and that’s not meant to understate the fear levels here in the States,” wrote Arlan Suderman in the Thursday morning StoneX Market Intelligence email.

What May Be Coming?

Asia

Officials from Japan, Korea, Vietnam, and a handful of other countries are in D.C., with several trade deals close to being finalized, according to members of the administration.

“By ‘pausing’ the tariffs, [Trump] eased market concerns, allowing for the rally, which he then expects to ease consumer fears,” Suderman wrote. “The move rewards those nations that came forward to negotiate lower rates, while sending a message to those who were considering retaliation instead. Trade agreements are quite lengthy — often exceeding 1,000 pages in length. It takes time to do one agreement, let alone 75. This ‘pause’ should help buy President Trump some time, but he’ll need to show significant progress soon — hopefully with an agreement with Japan and/or South Korea.”

Europe

The European Union says they were ready to fight back but will instead delay their implementation for 90 days as well, explained Angie Setzer in the morning Consus newsletter on Thursday, April 10.

The Prime Minister of Italy is expected to travel to D.C. next week as a representative of the bloc, hoping to start negotiations that will not only keep the reciprocal tariffs from going into effect, but will also get the blanket rate and aluminum and steel levies cut, she added.

China

While all the other countries around the world saw their tariffs rolled back while negotiation takes place, China saw theirs raised to 125% the afternoon of Wednesday, April 9. On Thursday afternoon, President Trump clarified that he’d raised tariffs on Chinese goods by a total of 145% since taking office, the New York Times reported.

The increase in rates on China, with a rollback on levies being charged to other trade partners, fits what members of the administration had hinted to earlier in the day Wednesday, said Setzer. “According to [U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott] Bessent and others, Trump is working to make deals with other nations and then will work with them to tackle China,” she said.

The Commstock Report said this week China offered “Australia an olive branch to ‘join hands’ and fight against the United States, an offer they wisely passed on.”

Commstock commodity broker Justin McKinney continued, “Goldman Sachs revised the Chinese economy to 4% growth from 4.5% due to the tariffs. While 4% growth still seems high when everything you make has a 125% tariff. I get it, the purchaser of those goods will pay the tariff, but I can tell you what: I am not going to be a purchaser of anything Chinese that I can help, not as a political statement, as my wife says, because I am cheap and don’t want to spend the money.”

Suderman made a similar point Wednesday morning, even before additional escalation. “It matters little whether the tariff is 34%, 54%, or 84% — it pretty much shuts down trade at any of those levels,” he said.

Tariff Impact so Far, Explained

Suderman said,“Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper than U.S. origin soybeans, even without the retaliatory tariffs. The level of retaliatory tariffs are essentially meaningless currently for soybeans.” 

“Export sales data showed the impact of last week’s tariff announcements and the subsequent uncertainty that followed. With cash trade said to be basically frozen for much of the week, we saw corn sales fall 33% from the four-week average to just under 800,000 metric tons (mt) on the week. Wheat sales were less than half of what has been sold in the previous four weeks, with soybean sales also flirting with a marketing year low,” said Setzer.

On April 10, Karl Setzer of Consus, added in a mid-day update, “Product sales picked up though, with [soybean] meal well above last week at 276,000 mt and oil sales up 46% at 20,200 mt. Weekly wheat sales were down 68% from the previous week with 107,300 mt old crop and 107,700 mt new crop. These were also at the very bottom of expectations.”

Turning to livestock exports, Setzer wrote, “Beef demand picked up on the week with 11,900 mt in sales, a 28% improvement on the week. Beef exports were up 1% at 15,100 mt. Pork sales were down 55% from the prior week with 23,700 mt. Export loadings on pork came in at 30,100 mt, a 9% decline from the week before.”

Recap The Week’s Market Movement

Monday, April 7

May corn, soybeans, and wheat ended the day higher. Livestock markets closed in the red. Here are the details.

Tuesday, April 8

May soybeans closed up nearly 10¢. Corn and wheat also closed higher. Hogs and cattle closed down. Here are the details.

Wednesday, April 9

May soybeans ended the day well over $10 after a 20¢ gain. Corn and wheat closed in the green. Here are the details.

Thursday, April 10

July corn and May soybeans closed up. USDA published the WASDE mid-day. Livestock markets closed mixed. Here are the details.