What Farmers Need to Know Before the June WASDE Report

The June WASDE report is due Thursday, June 12. Going into the report, here is what farmers need to know about the corn, soybean, and wheat markets, and what Grain Market Insider will be looking for in the updated balance sheets.

As a reminder, the May WASDE report showed U.S. old-crop corn carryout decreasing by 50 million bushels, old-crop soybean ending stocks decreasing by 25 million bushels, and wheat stocks decreasing slightly. Initial ending stocks estimates for new-crop corn and soybeans were below expectations while wheat stocks were above. 

Corn Market Expectations

Last month, 2024/2025 U.S. corn carryout was lowered from 1.465 billion bushels to 1.415 billion bushels, after exports were increased by 50 million bushels. World ending stocks for 2024/2025 were reduced from 287.65 million metric tons (mmt) in April to 287.29 mmt. Initial U.S. new-crop ending stocks came in below expectations at 1.8 billion bushels, assuming a trendline yield of 181 bushels per acre, which would be a record. World ending stocks for 2025/2026 were below expectations at 277.84 mmt.

Since then, export demand has remained strong and continues to exceed the USDA’s projected pace for the 2024/2025 crop year. Total sales commitments are at 97.2% of the USDA’s current forecast for the crop year, compared to the five-year average of 91.3% by this point in the year. Export inspections are at 73.6% of the USDA’s current estimate compared to the five-year average of 67.3%. Ethanol production has rebounded in recent weeks and stocks have been declining. If the recent pace continues, production is in line with the current estimate.

Grain Market Insider believes there is a good chance that old-crop exports will be increased in the June report and ethanol production will be unchanged. Grain Market Insider does not expect any changes to new-crop estimates.

Soybean Market Outlook

U.S. ending stocks for 2024/2025 soybeans were reduced from 375 million bushels in April to 350 million bushels in May due to higher export demand. World ending stocks increased from 122.47 mmt to 123.18 mmt. Initial ending stocks for the upcoming U.S. crop were well below expectations at 295 million bushels, assuming a trendline yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, which would be a new record. World ending stocks for the 2025/2026 crop year were below expectations at 124.33 mmt.

Since then, the export pace has remained firm and is slightly ahead of the pace needed to meet the current estimate for the 2024/2025 crop year. Soybean sales are at 96.2% of the USDA’s current projection for the crop year, compared to the five-year average of 96.1% by this point in the year. Inspections are roughly 2.5% ahead of the five-year average. Soybean crush for the month of April was 202 million bushels, down from 207 million in March, but up from 178 million last year.

With the pace of exports and crush in line with current estimates, Grain Market Insider does not expect adjustments to old-crop soybean ending stocks on the June report. There is also no expectation for any adjustments to new-crop ending stocks.

Considerations for the Wheat Market 

The May WASDE report was again bearish for wheat. Old-crop ending stocks came in just below expectations at 841 million bushels, while new-crop ending stocks were well above pre-report estimates at 923 million bushels. Old-crop world ending stocks were adjusted higher from 260.7 mmt to 265.21 mmt. This caused 2025/2026 world ending stocks to also come in above expectations at 265.73 mmt. 

Export sales for the 2025 crop year are off to a strong start. The current sales pace of 22.5% of the USDA’s current estimate for the crop year is well ahead of the five-year average of 14.2% by this point in the year. The current pace of old-crop inspections is also firm at 97.8% of the current estimate compared to the five-year average of 93.9%. 

Due to the firm pace of export inspections, there could be slightly lower carryout for old-crop wheat in next week’s report.

Historical Patterns and Statistical Perspective

Based on data from 2000-2023, Grain Market Insider’s internal research indicates that volatility on the June WASDE report day tends to be high for corn and wheat and low for soybeans. 

For corn, the June report has a 50-50 chance of being positive or negative. In terms of outright volatility, this report is high, with an average absolute change of 11¢. When examining upward or downward moves, the average positive net change on report day is 8¢, while the average negative net change is 13¢.

For soybeans, the June report has a 55% chance of triggering a negative reaction. The report is also the least volatile of all WASDE reports. When the reaction is positive, the average bounce is 5¢, compared to an average decline of 6¢ if the reaction is negative.

For wheat, the June report has a 59% chance of triggering a negative reaction and is one of the more volatile. Positive reactions generate an average gain of 11¢ while negative reactions on average trigger a 10¢ loss. 

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About the Author: Eric Fransen is the Director of TFM360 Market Analytics at Total Farm Marketing. Eric’s calm, confident, and reasonable approach to farm marketing has been a safe harbor to his clients and the grain team alike since 2007, making him a welcome person to turn to in an often-unsettled market. Eric enjoys breaking down and explaining complex concepts and strategies to farmers as he helps them make decisions to help improve their bottom lines.