What Farmers Need to Know Before the July WASDE Report

The July WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report is due Friday, July 11. Going into the report, here is what farmers need to know about the U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat markets, and what Grain Market Insider will be looking for in the updated balance sheets.

The June WASDE report showed U.S. old-crop corn carryout decreasing by 50 million bushels while old-crop soybean and wheat stocks were unchanged. The new-crop ending stocks estimate for corn decreased by 50 million bushels, soybeans were unchanged, while wheat stocks were reduced by 25 million. 

Corn Market Expectations

Over the past month, export demand has remained strong and continues to exceed the USDA’s projected pace for the 2024/2025 crop year. Total sales commitments are at 102.3% of the USDA’s current forecast for the crop year, compared with the five-year average of 94.4% by this point in the year. Export inspections are at 83.2% of the USDA’s current estimate, compared with the five-year average of 76.1%. Ethanol production has rebounded and has been exceeding the bushels needed to hit the current estimate for the past five weeks. If the recent pace continues, production could be slightly above the current projection.

Grain Market Insider thinks there is a good chance that old-crop corn exports will be increased, and ethanol production will be unchanged or increased slightly in this week’s report. The new-crop production estimate will likely be slightly lowered to reflect the planted and harvested acreage estimates in the annual USDA Acreage report released at the end of June. No demand or yield adjustments for new-crop corn are expected.

Soybean Market Outlook

Soybean export pace has remained firm and is slightly ahead of the pace needed to meet the current estimate for the 2024/2025 crop year. Soybean sales are in line with USDA’s current projection, while inspections are roughly 2.8% ahead of the five-year average pace. Soybean crush for May was 204 million bushels, up from 202 million in April and 192 million last year.

With the pace of export inspections slightly ahead of historical data, Grain Market Insider believes a slightly higher exports estimate and lower ending stocks for old-crop soybeans are possible in the July report. New-crop ending stocks will likely be lowered, due to the estimate in the Acreage report. No demand or yield adjustments for new-crop soybeans are expected. 

Considerations for the Wheat Market 

Since early June, export sales for the 2025/2026 crop year have remained firm. The current sales pace of 29.4% of the USDA’s current estimate for the crop year is slightly ahead of the five-year average of 25.5% by this point in the year. Export inspections are slightly behind. 

Grain Market Insider believes slightly higher carryout is possible, due to slightly higher stocks and planted acres. No adjustments to yield or demand are expected.

Historical Patterns and Statistical Perspective

Based on data from 2000–2023, Grain Market Insider’s internal research indicates market volatility on the July WASDE report day tends to be in the middle of the range for corn, soybeans, and wheat. 

For corn, the July report has a 64% chance of triggering a positive market reaction, which is the highest of all reports. In terms of outright volatility, this report is average with an average absolute change of 7¢. When examining upward or downward moves, the average positive net change on report day is 7¢, while the average negative net change is 6¢.

For soybeans, the July report has a 68% chance of triggering a positive reaction, which is also the highest of all reports. The report is slightly above average for volatility, with an average absolute change of 8¢. When the reaction is positive, the average bounce is 8¢, compared with an average decline of 9¢ if the reaction is negative.

For wheat, the July report has a 55% chance of triggering a positive reaction and is in the middle of the range in regard to volatility. Positive reactions generate an average gain of 12¢ while negative reactions on average trigger a 7¢ loss. 

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About the Author: Eric Fransen is the Director of TFM360 Market Analytics at Total Farm Marketing. Eric’s calm, confident, and reasonable approach to farm marketing has been a safe harbor to his clients and the grain team alike since 2007, making him a welcome person to turn to in an often-unsettled market. Eric enjoys breaking down and explaining complex concepts and strategies to farmers as he helps them make decisions to help improve their bottom lines.