Warmer Temperatures Ahead, Flooded States Catch a Break

The active precipitation pattern should slow down in the next week to 10 days, after what AccuWeather labeled a “1-in-1,000 year” rain event inundated areas across the Midwest to the Mid-South. The Climate Prediction Center shows near normal to above normal chances for precipitation in its 6- to 10-day outlook, as some areas look to recover from historic flooding. 

Trent Ford, Illinois state climatologist, said the severity of flooding will vary by field. 

“It really does depend on a field-by-field basis, given the amount of flooding that has taken place,” Ford said. “There may be some parts of Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky, that — even though it’s April — may have a hard time getting in a crop this year.” 

The most recent Crop Progress Report from the USDA reported only 1% of corn planted in Kentucky and 3% of corn in Tennessee as of April 6. While there may be delays, he expects most areas to recover in Southern Illinois. 

“If we had this event a month from now, it would be catastrophic because we’d have the majority of the corn and beans planted,” Ford said. 

Soil Temperatures to Rise

Looking ahead, Ford said temperatures will continue to warm up across the Midwest. Areas that recently received precipitation will take longer to warm up. He also explained that temperatures regressed in early April from lack of consistent warmth, but he doesn’t expect “major delays” due to soil temperatures. 

“The soils will warm up in the next week, week and a half, but because of how wet soils are — especially in those areas that just got a lot of precipitation and where we’re starting from — it may not be as timely as we’ve had in past years,” Ford said. 

Drought Concern for Western Corn Belt and Plains

Bret Walts, meteorologist for BAM Weather, expressed drought concern for states in the western Corn Belt and Plains. 

“I think that while in the eastern Corn Belt, we talked about planting concerns, those could be some areas that see less heat and moisture concerns heading into summer,” Walts said. “They may be starting out bad but ending a little bit better in the east, versus the western Corn Belt areas could have more drought concern into summer.” 

Walts said to keep an eye on the back half of May into June, particularly in the Plains, as signals point to being hot and dry going into the growing season. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly 76% of Nebraska and 100% of South Dakota are experiencing some degree of drought. He said he sees some similarities to years like 2011, 2012, and 2021 in terms of flooding issues and drought concerns. 

“With the oceanic temperatures, I do see similarities to 2012,” Walts said. “Now, I don’t think we’re nearly to that level, but with that year being in there it certainly points to the risk that there can be a drought concern going into summer.”