USDA Ups Corn and Soybean Production Estimates

Today, the USDA released the September 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

2025/2026 U.S. Crop Production

USDA pegged 2025/2026 U.S. corn production higher month-over-month, defying the average trade expectation. Yield was reduced, but planted and harvested acres were increased.

For soybeans, USDA also increased planted acres, harvested acres, and total production, while decreasing yield. The average trade expectation was for a bigger yield decrease and lower overall production.

2025/2026 U.S. Ending Stocks

USDA pegged 2025/2026 U.S. corn ending stocks slightly lower, but not as low as the average trade expectation. Soybean ending stocks were pegged higher, defying the average trade expectation for a decrease. Wheat was pegged even lower than expected.

2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks

For 2024/2025, USDA increased U.S. corn ending stocks more than the average trade expectation and made no change to soybean ending stocks.

2025/2026 Global Ending Stocks

USDA pegged 2025/2026 global corn and soybean ending stocks lower month-over-month, while the average trade expectation was for an increase. Wheat was pegged higher than expected.

2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks

For 2024/2025, USDA pegged global corn ending stocks higher month-over-month, but not quite as high as expected. For soybeans and wheat, USDA defied the average trade expectation for higher ending stocks by pegging them lower.

More From USDA

Corn

“This month’s 2025/2026 U.S. corn outlook is for greater supplies, larger exports, and a slight reduction in ending stocks,” said USDA in the report. “Projected beginning stocks for 2025/2026 are 20 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2024/2025, with reductions in imports and corn used for ethanol partially offset by an increase in exports. Corn production for 2025/2026 is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, up 72 million from last month as a 2.1-bushel reduction in yield to 186.7 bushels per acre is more than offset by a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested area to 90 million acres. If realized, harvested area would be the highest since 1933 and planted area of 98.7 million acres the highest since 1936.

“Total U.S. corn use for 2025/2026 is forecast up 100 million bushels to 16.1 billion. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to a record 3 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and robust early-season demand. With rising supply more than offset by greater use, ending stocks are down 7 million bushels to 2.1 billion.”

Soybeans

“The 2025/2026 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher production, higher crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to last month,” USDA said in the report. “Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, up slightly with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield. Harvested area is raised 0.2 million acres from the August forecast. The soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre is down marginally from last month. The crush forecast is raised 15 million bushels driven by stronger soybean meal exports. The soybean export forecast is reduced 20 million bushels on increased competition, particularly from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Ending stocks are projected at 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.” 

Wheat

“The outlook for 2025/2026 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks,” USDA said. “Exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 900 million on a continued strong pace of sales and shipments of hard red winter wheat. Projected 2025/2026 ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels to 844 million and are now slightly less than last year.”

Trade Reaction

Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor, Total Farm Marketing: “Today’s USDA report was neutral against pre-report expectations as the USDA stuck with their traditional maneuver of keeping the September WASDE adjustments minimal, waiting instead for combines to roll to gain a better assessment of actual yield results.

“Regarding corn, the USDA acknowledged the potential yield implications of southern rust by lowering yield. But quite frankly, based on early harvest results, it seems quite likely that the USDA will need to further lower yield potential in October as the southern rust is truly a big factor affecting harvest yield results. Within two weeks, we will have a better handle on the situation, and based on farmer conversations, the nationwide yield number will potentially be quite lower than traders are expecting. This must be monitored with the utmost caution and due diligence, as significantly lower yields would dramatically adjust the global balance sheet for corn.

“On the soybean side, [there were] no big changes for yield, as expected, and the USDA did an appropriate job of adjusting the export demand category lower for soybeans to acknowledge the slow export pace.”

Bob Linneman, commodity broker, Kluis Commodity Advisors: “The USDA report today was mostly in line with trade expectations. However, the increase in corn acres was not an adjustment traders were expecting to see. The 1.3 million acre increase to harvested acres will likely be a topic of discussion this weekend. Yield is most likely to continue to decline in future reports. The Aug. 12 low for corn and the Sept. 4 low in soybeans are likely to be major lows. Prices are likely to push higher and test upside resistance targets after the USDA report today.”

Editor’s Note: Trade expectations are sourced from Bloomberg.