USDA Ups 2025 Corn Production More Than Expected in Latest Crop Production Report

Today, the USDA released the August 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports.

2025/2026 Crop Production

In the August Crop Production report, USDA pegged 2025/2026 corn yield, harvested area, and production higher than the agency previously estimated and higher than the average trade expectations.

Soybean yield got a boost in today’s report over the previous USDA estimate and higher than the average trade expectation. However, harvested area and production were lowered from the previous agency estimate while the average trade expectation was for increases.

Wheat production was lowered from the previous USDA estimate, but not as much as the average trade expectation.

2025/2026 U.S. Ending Stocks

In the August WASDE report, the USDA increased 2025/2026 corn ending stocks more than the average trade expectation while for soybeans USDA defied expectations and pegged ending stocks lower. Wheat ending stocks were pegged lower than expected.

2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks

For 2024/2025, the USDA pegged corn and soybean ending stocks lower than the average trade expectations. Wheat ending stocks were unchanged month-over-month.

2025/2026 Global Ending Stocks

The USDA pegged 2025/2026 global corn ending stocks higher than the average trade expectation. Soybeans were pegged lower despite the average trade expectation for an increase. Wheat ending stocks were pegged lower while the average trade expectation was for a slight increase.

2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks

For 2024/2025 global ending stocks, the USDA pegged corn and wheat a bit lower month-over-month while the average trade expectation was for increases. Soybeans were pegged a bit higher while a slight decrease was the average expectation.

2024/2025 Argentina and Brazil Crop Production

Month-over-month, USDA held Brazil corn and soybean production estimates and the Argentina corn production estimate steady. The estimate for Argentina soybean production was increased.

More From USDA

Corn

Concerning corn, USDA said in the WASDE report: “This month’s 2025/2026 U.S. corn outlook is for sharply higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025/2026 are 35 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024/2025. For 2024/2025, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2025/2026 is forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1 billion from last month with a 1.9-million-acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023/2024. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection.…

“Total U.S. corn use for 2025/2026 is forecast 545 million bushels higher to 16 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 250 million bushels to 6.1 billion based on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected lower based on observed use during 2024/2025. Corn used for ethanol for 2025/2026 is raised 100 million bushels to 5.6 billion.

“Exports are raised 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and expectations of relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2.1 billion and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018/2019.”

Soybeans

Concerning soybeans, USDA said in the WASDE report: “The 2025/2026 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 20 million bushels on an increase to crush and exports in the prior marketing year. Soybean production for 2025/2026 is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million on a lower area partly offset by a higher yield. Harvested area is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.6 bushels per acre is up 1.1 bushels from last month. With lower supply and the slow pace of export sales to date, exports are reduced 40 million bushels. Crush is unchanged at 2.54 billion bushels. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.”

Wheat

For wheat, USDA said in the WASDE report: “The outlook for 2025/2026 U.S. wheat is for slightly tighter supplies, reduced domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower production, down 2 million bushels to 1.927 billion on smaller harvested area only partly offset by a higher yield. The all wheat yield is raised 0.1 bushels per acre to 52.7. Production forecasts are decreased for hard red spring and white, but increased for hard red winter, durum, and soft red winter. Domestic use is lowered 5 million bushels on reduced food use, based primarily on the latest NASS [National Agricultural Statistics Service] Flour Millings Products report. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong early pace of sales and shipments, particularly for hard red winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million.” 

Trade Reaction

Jeremy McCann, account manager, Farmer’s Keeper: “Today’s WASDE and Crop Production reports were full of surprises. Starting with corn: The USDA posted a 188.8 bushels per acre [yield] estimate, which is up a whopping 7.8 bushels per acre from July, and an increase of 2.1 million harvested acres. This brought our estimated carryout from 1.660 billion bushels to 2.117 billion bushels. This comes as a shock, not only to the trade but also to farmers, who are facing adverse conditions ranging from a lack of moisture to disease pressure. I can confidently say this is a big crop, but I would be shocked if these numbers are not revised lower by the time we get to our final estimate in January. 

“As for soybeans, despite an increase in [yield] from 52.5 bushels per acre to 53.6, the [production] decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels due to a decrease in 2.4 million harvested acres. This is positive for the soybean market, but without China showing up on the demand side of things, it’s to be determined if this can sustain a rally. 

“This year already posed enough economic pressure for farmers across the country, and this report was no help. We need demand to pick up fast to get any decent price out of harvest bushels rolling across the scales this fall.” 

Editor’s Note: Trade expectations are sourced from The Wall Street Journal and Reuters.