USDA Reduces Old Crop Corn Ending Stocks, Pegs New Crop Lower Than Expected

Today, USDA released the May 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

2025/2026 U.S. Ending Stocks

May’s WASDE report was the first to include 2025/2026 estimates. Corn and soybean ending stocks were pegged lower than the average trade expectation, while wheat was pegged higher.

2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks

USDA’s ending stocks estimates for 2024/2025 corn, soybeans, and wheat were all pegged lower month-over-month and lower than the average trade expectation.

2025/2026 Global Ending Stocks

Similar to the U.S. numbers, global ending stocks for 2025/2026 were pegged lower than the average trade expectation for corn and soybeans and higher than expected for wheat.

2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks

Global corn ending stocks for 2024/2025 were pegged lower month-over-month and lower than the average trade expectation. Soybeans were pegged higher month-over-month and higher than expected. For wheat, the average trade expectation was for no change but USDA pegged wheat higher month-over-month.

2024/2025 Argentina and Brazil Crop Production

The only adjustment USDA made to Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production estimates for 2024/2025 was to increase the Brazil corn production estimate.

More From USDA

Corn

“The 2025/2026 U.S. corn outlook is for record supplies and total use, and higher ending stocks,” said USDA in the May report. “The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6% from a year ago on increases to both area and yield. … With smaller beginning stocks partially offsetting the increase in production, total corn supplies are forecast at 17.3 billion bushels. 

“Total U.S. corn use for 2025/2026 is forecast to rise over 1% relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago at 5.5 billion bushels, based on expectations of essentially flat motor gasoline consumption and exports. Feed and residual use is projected higher to 5.9 billion bushels on larger supplies and lower expected prices. 

“U.S. corn exports for 2025/2026 are forecast up from a year ago to 2.7 billion bushels, with lower prices driving a forecast increase in world trade. … 

“With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2025/2026 ending stocks are up 385 million bushels from last year and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2019/2020.”

Soybeans

“The 2025/2026 outlook for U.S. soybeans shows slightly lower supplies, higher crush, reduced exports, and lower ending stocks compared with 2024/2025,” USDA said in the report. “The soybean crop is projected lower at 4.34 billion bushels with trend yield and lower area. With higher beginning stocks but lower imports and production, soybean supplies are down less than 1% from 2024/2025. … 

“U.S. soybean crush for 2025/2026 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/2025 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance and exports. …

“U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/2025.

“U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025/2026 are projected at 295 million bushels, down 55 million from the revised 2024/2025 forecast.”

Wheat

“The 2025/2026 U.S. wheat outlook is for increased supplies, modestly higher domestic use, reduced exports, and higher stocks,” USDA said. “Supplies are projected up 2% from 2024/2025 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. All wheat production is projected at 1.921 billion bushels, down 3% from last year on lower harvested acreage. The all-wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. … Total 2025/2026 domestic use is marginally higher, mostly on food use, which is projected at a record 977 million bushels. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bushels as the United States is expected to face strong competition from most major exporters in 2025/2026. Projected 2025/2026 ending stocks are 10% above last year at 923 million bushels, the highest level in six years.”

Note: Trade expectations are sourced from Bloomberg.

Trade Reaction

Jeremy McCann, account manager, Farmer’s Keeper: “The surprise in today’s report lies in the 2025/2026 crop. Today’s WASDE was our first look at those numbers and the trade was expecting a corn carryout of 2 billion bushels or higher, but the USDA posted it at 1.8 billion bushels. Soybeans also came in well below expectations, but wheat was higher. To me, this is the USDA trying to avoid the situation they are in right now by keeping export numbers high ahead of the growing season. We’ve seen great demand in the past nine months and even with tariffs still on the table the USDA is expecting the same for new crops.”

Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor, Total Farm Marketing: “Today’ USDA report was quite supportive for corn futures. … There is no room for a weather issue this summer. … And it won’t just be U.S. weather to watch this summer. China has parched conditions in their corn growing areas, and drought is a real potential risk factor there.

“Today’s USDA report was supportive for U.S. soybeans with tighter old crop carryout, and snug new crop carryout of 295 million bushels. … Negative however, are large global carryout levels for beans.

“Regarding wheat, the report was negative, with a larger carryout number expected for U.S. wheat for the 2025/2026 crop year. … But don’t get too Debbie Downer about that quite yet. We are hearing reports in Kansas of a serious crop issue that is decimating wheat fields.”