USDA Lowers Old and New Crop U.S. Corn Ending Stocks

Today, USDA released the June 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

2025/2026 U.S. Ending Stocks

USDA pegged corn and wheat ending stocks for the 2025/2026 marketing year lower than the average trade expectation. Soybean ending stocks were held steady month-over-month, in line with the average trade expectation.

2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks

For 2024/2025, USDA lowered corn ending stocks more than the average trade expectation. Soybean and wheat ending stocks were held steady month-over-month while the average trade expectation was for increases.

2025/2026 Global Ending Stocks

USDA defied expectations by lowering 2025/2026 global corn ending stocks when an increase was expected. For soybeans and wheat, USDA supplied the expected increase or decrease but went further than the average expectation.

2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks

For 2024/2025 global ending stocks, USDA defied the average trade expectation for corn, soybeans, and wheat in some way. For corn, USDA went lower when an increase was expected. Soybeans were pegged higher when a slight decrease was expected. Wheat was pegged lower when the average trad expectation was for no change.

2024/2025 Argentina and Brazil Crop Production

USDA made no month-over-month changes to estimates for 2024/2025 Argentine and Brazilian corn and soybean production.

More From USDA

Corn

“The 2025/2026 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month, with lower beginning and ending stocks,” USDA said in the report. “Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are down 50 million bushels, reflecting a forecast increase in exports for 2024/2025. Exports are raised 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, inspection data during the month of May, and current outstanding sales. With no use changes for 2025/2026, ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels to 1.8 billion.”

Soybeans

“U.S. 2025/2026 soybean supply, use, and price projections are unchanged this month,” USDA said in the report.

Wheat

“The outlook for 2025/2026 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks,” USDA said in the report. “Supplies are raised on minimally higher output as all wheat production is projected at 1.921 billion bushels, up 115,000 bushels from last month as higher soft red winter and white winter production offset lower hard red winter (HRW) production. The all wheat yield is virtually unchanged at 51.6 bushels per acre. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 825 million on strong early 2025/2026 sales, especially for HRW. Projected 2025/2026 ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels to 898 million but are still 7% above last year.” 

Trade Reaction

Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor, Total Farm Marketing: “Today’s USDA report was largely neutral, as expected…. The bigger headline stealing the thunder from today’s USDA report was that, minutes before the WASDE report was released, [news broke that] the Trump administration is now expected to release the renewable fuel volumes proposal on Friday. Tomorrow’s report on renewable fuel volumes is going to be the short-term catalyst for price direction, since today’s USDA report was such a dud. Weather watching into July will continue to be of ultra importance as well.”

Al Kluis, managing director, Kluis Commodity Advisors: “We saw, initially, just a limited market response and then we started to trade on weather. Rain moving across the Corn Belt right now is probably more important than the report. The report was kind of a non-event.”

Editor’s Note: Trade expectations are sourced from Dow Jones.