USDA Lowers New-Crop Corn Ending Stocks More Than Expected in Latest WASDE.

Today, USDA released the July 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

2025/2026 U.S. Ending Stocks

In the report, USDA pegged 2025/2026 corn and wheat ending stocks lower month-over-month and lower than the average trade expectation while soybean ending stocks were increased month-over-month more than the average expecation.

2024/2025 U.S. Ending Stocks

For 2024/2025, USDA pegged corn ending stocks a bit lower than the average trade expectation. For soybeans, ending stocks were unchanged when the average trade expectation was for an increase. Wheat ending stocks were increased a bit more than the average expectation.

2025/2026 Global Ending Stocks

USDA defied the average trade expectations for 2025/2026 corn and wheat ending stocks by pegging them lower month-over-month. Soybeans were pegged higher than the average expectation.

2024/2025 Global Ending Stocks

For 2024/2025 global ending stocks, USDA pegged corn lower month-over-month when the average trade expectation was for an increase. Soybean ending stocks were pegged higher than the average expectation. The average expectation for wheat was no change but USDA pegged ending stocks lower.

2024/2025 Argentina and Brazil Crop Production

USDA increased the 2024/2025 estimate for Brazilian corn production month-over-month, but not as much as the average trade expectation. The estimate for Argentinian soybean production was increased more than the average trade expectation.

More From USDA

Corn

“This month’s 2025/2026 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks,” said USDA in the report. “Corn beginning stocks are cut 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion, reflecting an increase in exports that is partly offset by lower feed and residual use for 2024/2025. Feed and residual use is down 75 million based on indicated disappearance in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date and, if realized, would be record high. Corn production for 2025/2026 is forecast down 115 million bushels on lower planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181 bushels per acre. Total use is cut 50 million bushels with a reduction for feed and residual use based on lower supplies. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 90 million bushels.”

Soybeans

“The 2025/2026 outlook for U.S. soybeans shows slightly lower production, higher crush, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks compared to last month,” USDA said in the report. “ … U.S. soybean exports for 2025/2026 are lowered 70 million bushels to 1.75 billion on higher U.S. domestic demand, higher exports for Argentina and Ukraine, and larger Brazilian supplies at the end of September during the U.S. peak export season. With lower U.S. soybean exports partly offset by higher crush, ending stocks are increased 15 million bushels to 310 million.” 

Wheat

“The outlook for 2025/2026 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks,” USDA said in the report. “Supplies are raised as wheat production is projected at 1.929 billion bushels, up 8 million from last month on higher yields more than offsetting reduced harvested area. The all-wheat yield is 52.6 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last month. Winter wheat production is lowered 36 million bushels to 1.345 billion with reductions in hard red winter and soft red winter. The initial 2025/2026 survey-based production forecasts from NASS [National Agricultural Statistics Service] indicate that other spring wheat is less than last year at 504 million bushels on lower harvested area and yields while Durum is slightly lower at 80 million on reduced yields. Exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 850 million on a strong early pace of sales and shipments. Projected 2025/2026 ending stocks are lowered 8 million bushels to 890 million but are up 5% from last year.”

Trade Reaction

Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor, Total Farm Marketing: “It was supportive that today’s USDA report reduced old-crop corn carryout yet again, showing strong demand for old-crop supplies. This was mostly expected. New-crop carryout was then also reduced, which was supportive for new-crop values. However, keeping new-crop corn prices on the defensive was a decrease in corn demand for feed. And while the USDA made no changes to yield on this report, that was largely expected, too. Traders still feel yield will likely be higher than the USDA number of 181 bushels per acre, which is why corn prices are trading on the defensive after the report. … With little for fresh news, traders will go back to weather watching and yield guessing.”

Editor’s Note: Trade expectations are sourced from The Wall Street Journal.