Understanding the 2025 Grain Price Rollercoaster: What’s Coming Next?

What Happened

The first few months of 2025 have provided plenty of volatility for grain prices. Corn, wheat, and soybean futures enjoyed a nearly one-month price rally after the unexpectedly friendly January USDA WASDE report. Then in late February and early March, the selling kicked in due to tariff and trade uncertainty.

As of this writing, prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat are back down to the same price points from early January.

“Now what?” A client recently asked me. The question reflected sarcasm, philosophical tones, and genuine curiosity regarding how grain prices might trade for the spring and summer 2025.  

“I’m not totally sure,” I responded. “We need to be ready for anything.”

From a Marketing Perspective

In the coming months, be ready to manage your grain marketing consistently, making time daily to check on prices for both the futures markets and your local cash markets. 

U.S. old-crop grain ending stocks are viewed as snug, while new-crop fundamentals will remain mixed until more is known regarding summer weather, not only in the U.S., but around the world. There will be plenty of newsworthy items to offer market movement, either higher or lower. 

Traders will constantly be monitoring:

1. Global economic jitters
2. Trump administration
3. Trade and tariff concerns
4. South American weather
5. Fund trading activity
6. Upcoming USDA WASDE reports

Which way will these pieces of news ultimately fall and tip the price scale? 

Prepare Yourself

Start looking at technical charts for corn, soybean and wheat markets. Know where support and resistance levels are on those charts, as they may help create pricing opportunities for your cash sales.  Decide where and when you want to pull the trigger on those cash sales. Get those orders working with your grain elevator now. 

Good marketers also have contingency plans in place, so they can act when they see an opportunity or protect themselves against tumbling prices. It takes a well-balanced blend of fundamental analysis, knowing your local cash market, weighing both U.S. and global economic news, watching geo-political drama, understanding technical charts, and having discipline.

Practice Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is forward thinking. It’s preparing your farm for anything the markets may throw your way. The process creates possible future outcomes:

• Sharply higher markets
• Markets that stay low for two years at a time
• Markets that stay consistent

Be ready for anything; there is plenty of uncertainty ahead.

If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or visit totalfarmmarketing.com. 

Disclaimer: The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.