U.S. Share of China Soybean Market Fell to 21% in 2024

By Ryan Hanrahan

Reuters Ella Cao, and Mei Mei Chu reported on Monday that “China’s soybean imports from the United States dropped 5.7% in 2024 from the previous year and were replaced by Brazilian and Argentine shipments, as fears of a renewed Sino-US trade war further hammered the US market share to under a quarter.”

“China imported a record 105.03 million metric tons of the oilseed in 2024 ahead of the inauguration of President Donald Trump, whose threats of blanket 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods sparked concerns over disruptions to agriculture trade,” Reuters reported. “Total shipments from the US fell to 22.13 million tons while arrivals from Brazil rose 6.7% to 74.65 million tons, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs on Monday.”

“Brazil remained China’s top soybean supplier in 2024 as Beijing expanded its effort to reduce its reliance on the US and deepen cooperation with ‘Belt and Road’ countries to ensure food security,” Reuters reported. “Brazil’s soybean market share rose to 71%, while the US share shrank to 21%, according to Reuters calculations based on the data. Imports from smaller supplier Argentina more than doubled to 4.1 million tons in 2024 from 1.95 million tons in 2023.”

The Reuters report says that “US shipments to China, however, have surged since April and accelerated in the past few months as traders prepare for a potential halt to soybean trade between the two countries.” But Reuters reporter Karen Braun wrote on the social media website X that “I suppose it’s possible US-China soy trade could’ve been *even worse* in 2024 if not for the Trump fears. But only 47% of current US soy sales are to China, the date’s lowest rate in 17 years (excl. trade war yrs).”

China Soy Processors Continue Buying From Brazil for Q1

Reuters’ Naveen Thukral, Ella Cao, and Mei Mei Chu reported that “Chinese soybean processors have turned to competitively priced Brazilian cargoes instead of U.S. oilseeds, amid fears Washington will impose import tariffs after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.”

“Worries about revived trade tensions during Trump’s second administration have already disrupted trade flows to China, the world’s biggest agricultural goods importer, prompting buyers to stockpile inventories and seek alternative suppliers,” Thukral, Cao and Chu reported. “Chinese processors have secured nearly all of their cargoes from Brazil for first quarter shipment, according to three trade sources.”

“‘Chinese crushers are now booking Brazilian cargoes for February and March shipment,’ said a trader in Singapore,” according to Thukral, Cao and Chu’s reporting. “‘Both state-owned and private crushers, all of them are taking Brazilian beans. It is a 100% shift to Brazil.‘”

“South American soybeans, which are harvested early in the year, dominate the global trade until U.S. supplies enter the market from August,” Thukral, Cao and Chu reported. “But this year Chinese oilseed importers have turned to Brazilian beans more quickly and en masse, hitting U.S. suppliers towards the end of their peak marketing season in January. This is likely to leave the U.S., the No.2 soybean exporter after Brazil, with 10.34 million metric tons of beans by the end of the 2024/25 marketing year in August, the highest in five years, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.”

U.S. Share of China Soybean Market Fell to 21% in 2024 was originally published by Farmdoc.