U.S. July Cattle Herd Smallest Since 1973

By Ryan Hanrahan

Bloomberg’s Gerson Freitas Jr reported that “the latest US cattle tally offered little relief for consumers paying record beef prices, even as the cycle of herd liquidation seems to be coming to an end.”

“There were about 94.2 million cattle and calves in the U.S. as of July 1, the lowest mid-year count on record in data going back to 1973, the Department of Agriculture said in a report,” Freitas Jr reported. “The number of animals placed in feedlots for weight gain before being sent to slaughter plunged to the lowest since 2017, the USDA said in a separate note.”

“A severe shortage in the world’s largest beef-producing country has sent cattle costs soaring, wiping out billions in profits for companies such as JBS NV and Tyson Foods Inc., while driving record beef prices at grocery stores,” Freitas Jr reported. “For years, ranchers have been slashing their herds due to a combination of high interest rates, costly feed and persistent drought. But record cattle prices and improved pasture conditions this year are raising speculation that ranchers are moving to rebuild their herds — a move that is yet to be confirmed.”

“The latest USDA numbers offer ‘very little indication of much herd rebuilding or anything very aggressive,’ said Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University,” Freitas Jr reported. “The number of heifers in feedlots remained mostly stable relative to that for steers, suggesting ranchers are not meaningfully retaining females for breeding. ‘We are probably stabilizing cattle numbers, but we’re not growing yet,’ he said.”

Cattle Herd Growth to Be Slow Moving Forward

FarmWeek’s Rhiannon Branch reported that Kevin Good, vice president of industry relations and analysis with CattleFax, told FarmWeek that “a look at numbers over the last 12 months show beef and dairy heifer replacement numbers start to pick back up, as showcased in the cattle on feed report, also released July 25.”

“‘It looks at the amount of heifers on feed and if you look at that as a percentage, July 1 of this year you’re at 38.1% versus 39.4% a year ago,’ he said,” according to Branch’s reporting. “‘So, it does tell you that there were more heifers being kept back for replacements.’”

“Cow slaughter and heifer on feed numbers year to date indicate the beef cow herd at the beginning of 2026 should be a tick larger than the start of 2025,” Branch reported. “‘Turn around is going to be very slow,’ Good said. ‘We are keeping heifers, but it’s at a much slower pace than we did the previous cycle.’”

Restrictions on Mexico Beef Imports also Impacting Prices

MarketWatch’s Myra P. Saefong reported that “the U.S. government started to restrict the import of animals originating from Mexico in November of last year because of a disease known as New World Screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. It’s caused by an infestation of larvae from a certain parasitic fly that can lead to potentially fatal wounds and infections.”

“Mexico is the fourth-largest beef supplier to the U.S., and shipped 13% of U.S. beef imports in 2024, according to the USDA,” Saefong reported. “The U.S. suspension of cattle imports from Mexico ‘impacts beef supplies significantly,’ said David Maloni, president of Datum FS, a food-service supply-chain consulting firm. “‘It’s unlikely that imports will fully resume in the near term, which will impact beef supplies at least into 2026.’”

“That comes at a time when the U.S. has been relying heavily on imports — particularly from its top suppliers Australia, Canada and Brazil — to help satisfy some of the lost domestic production,” Saefong reported. “Beef imports set a new record in 2024 at 4.635 billion pounds, which topped the previous record from 2023 by more than 24%, according to the USDA.”

“‘Brazil, Australia [and] New Zealand account for the majority of lean beef-trim imports that are used in hamburgers in the U.S.,’ said Maloni,” according to Saefong’s reporting. “The threat of additional U.S. tariffs on imports from these countries, potentially effective Aug. 1, could greatly impact already record-high prices for lean beef trim, which is a ‘major exposure’ for the U.S. food-service industry, he said.”

U.S. July Cattle Herd Smallest Since 1973 was originally published by Farmdoc.