U.S. Farmers Face Trade Strains, Record Crops, and Market Uncertainty

Harvest is quickly approaching, but grower groups and the ag industry are on edge, as China has yet to make a purchase from the fall U.S. soybean crop.

At the Farm Progress Show, Agri-Pulse Newsmakers asked American Soybean Association (ASA) President Caleb Ragland about the letter ASA sent to President Trump urging a trade deal with China and about his conversation with Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden at the show. Rabobank’s Stephen Nicholson says he believes circumstances have changed too much since the China Phase One trade agreement to secure a similar deal now.

Plus, National Corn Growers Association First Vice President Jed Bower said the expected record corn crop is causing a push for year-round E-15; Austin Gellings, from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, discussed how equipment companies are dealing with tariffs; and Robb Ewoldt, with the United Soybean Board, discussed diversifying uses of U.S. soy, domestically and internationally.

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Please note: This transcript has not been edited.

Lydia Johnson: Welcome to Agri-Pulse Newsmakers, where we aim to take you to the heart of Ag policy. I’m your host, Lydia Johnson, bringing you a special edition of newsmakers this week from the farm Progress Show. Thousands of farmers and industry leaders gathered in Decatur, Illinois, this week to see the newest AG innovations unveil new products. and see field demonstrations of drones and equipment in action. Key political leaders also attend, including Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden, who teased that the Trump administration is discussing bridge financial assistance to help farmers make it into 2026. Talking to reporters, Vadym provided no details what the assistance would look like. However, he noted the department’s spending authority under the Commodity Credit Corporation, which the first Trump administration used to provide two rounds of compensation to farmers for the trade war with China but typically be refreshed in November. China is the largest customer of U.S. soybeans, has yet to make any purchases from the fall U.S. soybean crop.

Caleb Ragland, President, American Soybean Association

The American Soybean Association recently sent a letter to President Trump warning that the ag sector will be hit with extreme financial stress if a trade deal is not secured with China. We asked Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, what the response has been to that letter.

Caleb Ragland: Right now, we’re in a very dire situation. September is upon us Harvest is starting in the Deep South, and we have zero bushels of soybeans on the books to be sold to China for this current crop that’s about to come out of the field. Historically, over the last five years, about a third of soybean sales to China would be book. China amounts to 25% of our total U.S. soybean crop, so that would be 8 or 9% of the whole U.S. crop would normally be on the books with China right now, and we have zero. That is alarming. The farm economy as a whole is struggling. Inflation has caused our cost of production to rise drastically. I’ll never front commodity prices in particular. Soybeans are down about 50% from where they were three years ago. And, our numbers are deeply in the red. And, we send this letter to President Trump because we’ve been talking for months about needing to have sales in place, a deal in place, a phase two type agreement that has purchase commitments along with a level playing field on trade with no tariffs. And, we haven’t had anything happen. Unfortunately. And our appeal to President Trump and his administration is make soybeans a priority in any trade negotiations that are taking place. Soybeans are the number one agriculture export to China. And, in the last trade war, it was 71% of the losses that we had as American farmers, and they’re critical.

Lydia Johnson: Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden was at the farm Progress show yesterday. You had the chance to meet with him. I’m curious, you know, what concerns you raised with him? And was he receptive to those?

Caleb Ragland: The requests that we particularly made of Deputy Secretary Biden and of, Secretary Rollins is to make sure that this message is clearly communicated to President Trump and his upper level, the administration. I believe they’re doing that. They shared things with us yesterday about details of the work they’re doing, and it gives me confidence that the message is delivered. And basically now the ball’s in President Trump’s court as to what we do about it. The farm economy is struggling. It was already struggling before tariffs were put in place. And that has made things exponentially worse. And we are very concerned about future months.

Lydia Johnson: The last trade war with China led to the phase one agreement, in which China promised to buy a certain amount of U.S. commodities. Do you think that will happen again, or do you worry that circumstances have changed too much since then?

Caleb Ragland: I have confidence in, President Trump’s ability as a negotiator, as a businessperson, to get a deal done. The phase one deal had a lot of opportunity in it for farmers and in particular for soybeans. Unfortunately, there was a change and we didn’t have follow through. Right now, we need to get a deal in place. We need to have commitments. We need to have follow through, and we need China to have their feet held to the fire, to meet the agreements that they’ve made and to make future agreements as well. And I think that is the big challenge. This is obviously a very complex, geopolitical situation. There’s much more than soybeans involved, but keeping people fed, getting them the protein they need and, you know, some goodwill work to get the process started would be wonderful.

Lydia Johnson: Senate Majority Leader John Thune recently said he’s taking a wait and see approach to consider if producers need payments like USDA’s 2018 Market Facilitation Program to compensate growers for market loss due to the trade war. I mean, you mentioned this about economic stress. But as we look into the future, you know, do you believe U.S. producers will need payments this fall to, to stay in operation and to keep their farms?

Caleb Ragland: Well, as, we’ve been stressing the, margins are very negative. Mississippi State ag econ put out a study a couple of weeks ago that showed Mississippi soybean farmers were losing $207, on average, for this year’s crop, that they’re already deep into harvest ahead of the rest of the country. Yet kind of. That’s a warning shot for us, farther into the heartland of how bad things are. We prefer, much prefer, to make money from the market. Disaster programs, payments — They don’t make us whole. They’re putting a Band-Aid on a big flesh wound. But that may be what it takes in the end. But we want opportunities from the market. We want to be able to make a profit from the market and keep our families fed. There’s hundreds of thousands of farm families across this country that are completely dependent on ag for their income. And I’m one of those. I speak for every one of the 500,000 U.S. soybean farmers. We want to make our profit from the market, but we must have a equal playing field. We must have opportunities.

Stephen Nicholson, Global Strategist — Grains & Oilseeds, Rabobank

Lydia Johnson: We’re looking in the harvest season with many uncertainties about the global trade landscape. We asked Steve Nicholson with Rabobank how he views the economic standing in farm country right now.

Stephen Nicholson: Yeah, so if we look at and we’re going to divide. So I’ll stay with grain oilseeds because that’s what I do day to day. But I just have to say one thing about livestock. For livestock folks it’s a good we’re in good world for them right now. So we’ll I’d love to be able to have as good a world that they’re having at G&O, but we just don’t. And so there’s just so many things. And it’s really it’s really a supply story this year we think about across the across the globe. We haven’t had a year where every country’s almost in all cylinders, eight cylinders. We’re we’re getting full, you know full production. And that’s where we are right now. It’s also to a bit of a dichotomy in the US is that you’ve got we’re we’re building corn stocks, but the world is not what’s just the option soybeans for the world’s billion soy stocks and we’re not. And so it’s a very weird world. But the fact is we just have so much supply in the world that’s just going to keep prices, you know, really on the defensive.

Lydia Johnson: The U.S. expecting a record corn crop this year, and China, the largest purchaser of U.S. soybeans, is yet to make a purchase from this fall’s crop. You know, as you look at this situation from a global perspective, where do you see these grains going this fall, and how could that affect farmer bottom line, come harvest and looking ahead?

Stephen Nicholson: Yeah. So I think there’s no doubt soybeans is a big concern because we export, you know, 40 some percent of our soybeans. The world that we produce in China just, you know, they didn’t take any soybeans in June at all. I suspect July and August are going to look very, very similar. And you’re right, if you look into the next crop year, China’s a big old fat zero. And so I think that for China, they’re going to go to Brazil because that’s who they’ve kind of gotten in bed with. And because of the tariff wars, China’s saying, fine, we’ll just wait this out and go from there, and I will say sort of parenthetically, China, if they’re nothing, they’re pragmatic. And, you know, the fact is, U.S. soybean prices and U.S. corn prices globally have been very competitive. And so, you know, that puts a little different spin on it for China. What how do you do that? Where do you go from here? If you look at corn, it’s a little different story. Yes. The U.S. is competitive. We only ship 10 to 15% of our production. But we’ve is but Brazil, even though they produced a big crop this year, they’re just filling the pipeline. And the fact is that Brazil continues to have logistics issues where they can’t get stuff out the door on a timely manner. And so I think that puts the United States in a good position to continue to be a good exporter of corn globally. And we expect and we’re going to be competitive. So I think that will be we can look forward to that going forward. But the fact is, because of what we just talked about, even though exports on corn might be better than we anticipate, the fact is the prices are still going to be pretty low just because of supply situation.

Lydia Johnson: And we’re still seeing conflict in Ukraine in the Black Sea region. I’m curious how that’s affecting global trade and global oilseed trade.

Stephen Nicholson: Yeah. So let’s first give the Ukrainians their kudos. They’ve continue to export at a fairly good pace, even though they have all this conflict, as you say in your question. So we have to at least acknowledge that. But the fact is we’re seeing a slow degradation of their production capacity because of, you know, the war, labor, you know, bad soil situation with toxicities or compaction or trenches or whatever. And obviously the ports in the Black Sea have not been operating at full capacity. So that’s still a challenge. You know, Brazil’s going to or Ukraine’s could still be a challenge to move our product, even though they have unbelievable pace considering what they’re dealing with. Russians rival a larger wheat crop this year. So we’re going to be there, be moving more wheat onto the global market as well.

Lydia Johnson: And the last trade war with China led to the phase one agreement, which China promised to buy a certain amount of U.S. commodities. Do you think that that will happen again, or do you think the circumstances have changed too much?

Stephen Nicholson: I think that I’m going to say that I think the circumstances have changed enough. I think China’s just going to kind of wait the US out. You know, they’re frustrated with our policies. They’re frustrated with the action that the United States has taken. And they can right now, they have record stocks in-house. Stocks are down a little bit from their highs. And let me put it that way. But the fact is they can buy from Brazil. Brazil can supply them certainly for a short to medium term. And so I think that will make a difference as well. But I think we’re going to have China is going to be a tough nut to crack, and they’re not going to just buckle anytime soon in my in my view.

Jed Bower, First Vice President, National Corn Growers Association

Lydia Johnson: The US is expecting a bin busting record corn crop this fall. We asked Jed Bower, the National Corn Growers Association first vice president, his thoughts on the report and how the U.S. continues expanding markets as harvest is on the horizon.

Jed Bower: Oh, sure. You know, it’s exciting. We got a great crop in America. We were one of the best in the world at what we do. And it is a little scary, though. You know, we’re looking at record exports right now. But the price of corn is pretty tough. And as we look at a big crop, that prices are going to get a little harder. And we’ve got to continue to build out these export markets around the world, drive demand, but also just locally. I mean, here in the U.S., we’ve got to build demand. You know, E15 is a great step to burn up a few billion bushels if we can just get that over the mark. And it’s so frustrating. Been working on this for years, and it’s a shame now that that we’re on the verge of a crisis in rural America, that people are now taking note and realizing that, oh, no, we need to do something for farmers. When we’ve been on the Hill and we’ve been everywhere working these issues for so long, trying to explain to them that this issue will come. And now that it’s here, you know, it’s it’s just pushing and helping people understand, you know, we’re in a dire strait right now, with the amount of corn that we’re looking to produce, as you mentioned, and the markets the way they are, input prices high. It’s it’s definitely a struggle. And we have got to got to get something over with this.

Lydia Johnson: And you mentioned that record corn crop. It puts focus on the need for diversifying markets. You know, how is increasing ethanol production one avenue for that.

Jed Bower: Oh I think it’s it’s an easy avenue. It’s an easy fix. You know, we talk about it all the time when we’re on the hill and we are being positive right now. I know I can be a little negative because we’ve been working on it so long, but I think this is an easy way to use up some corn. And when I say some corn, I’m talking a lot of corn. Like it could be, you know, for every 1% blend we go up, it’s half a billion bushels. So if you go up five, that’s potentially another 2.5 billion bushels. And when we continue on the yield trend that we’re on, we have to have ways to use up these piles of corn.

Lydia Johnson: And Representative Dusty Johnson last week expressed optimism about year round E15 being passed by the end of the year. You know, I’m curious what legislative vehicle do you see that happening through and why is that — you mention why it’s so important to producers.

Jed Bower: It is. And when you start talking about vehicles, I’ll be honest, there’s a few, but we’ll take anything we can get. I mean, we’re at that point right now in rural America. Any avenue we can get this across the line, I think is, is where we are. And we are in constant communications trying to find ways to get that. You know, I want to tell you which one we’re really pushing for, but we’ll take anything right now because corn farmers are desperate.

Lydia Johnson: It looks like the Make America Healthy Again strategy will largely leave pesticides alone. But, you know, I’m curious. President Trump seems to be pushing soda makers to switch from corn sweetener to cane sugar. Are you concerned that high fructose corn syrup is going to get a bad name in this?

Jed Bower: No. With with the Making America healthy again, I think we all can get behind that. And there’s been so much research done. You know, as you mentioned on the pesticide front, all that research has been done. There’s no reason to recreate it. It’s the same with the high fructose corn syrup that research has been done for years. It’s a safe product. We’ve been using it for decades. It’s all about consumption. And we all believe Americans need to be healthier. But don’t pick on rural America when everything we’ve been. Everything that we’re doing has been researched and it’s been proven healthy.

Austin Gellings, Association of Equipment Manufacturers

Lydia Johnson: Dozens of U.S. trading partners were hit with higher tariffs after President Trump’s Aug. 1st negotiating deadline passed. We asked Austin Gellings with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers how the ongoing trade uncertainty is affecting the equipment sector.

Austin Gellings: Yeah, it’s something that all of our members and equipment manufacturers are having to deal with and navigate. I think really at the end of the day, what they’re looking for is a certainty, right? Certainty and is they’re planning for as we’re heading into 2026. What’s that going to look like as they’re trying to provide the solutions to farmers. So at the end of the day, they can continue to try to produce and provide everybody with a safe and reliable food supply. And so just really navigating that and then looking for what’s what’s that going to look like, you know, over the next couple of couple of months, a couple of years so that they can they can plan for that and provide that level of certainty to the consumer and the farmer as well.

Lydia Johnson: And higher costs for the industry to eventually reach farmers who will be purchasing this equipment. I’m curious, how soon could that be? How soon could farmers see a higher price tag on this equipment?

Austin Gellings: You know, I think, you know, I’ll leave that. I’ll leave that to the to our members. But, you know, at the end of the day, I know that a lot of our members, they’re working hard in order to, make sure that the farmer is the least impacted, as they’re navigating this. And so, you know, every company is going to approach that different, and they’ve got their strategy of how they’re going to do that. You know, so it’s just it’s just navigating, you know, how is it impacting their, their company, and navigating the changes as it comes. And I think that’s you know, going back to my previous point as well, if we can get some, some certainty is what’s this going to look like in the long term? That helps them and, you know, not only make those plans but then be able to, you know, make those decisions on, on, long term. What’s that going to look like? Both for them as a company, but that now, also, you know, how how they’re going to work with their, their customers as well.

Lydia Johnson: And in addition to trade uncertainty, the industry is seeing high interest rates and falling commodity prices as well. Now, how have you seen sales and shipments of product change this year alone?

Austin Gellings: Yeah, I think I think the reality is, you know, it’s not breaking news. You know, the market’s down and the equipment manufacturers on immune to that. And they’re certainly, you know, doing their best to continue to provide farmers with the solutions that they need. And I think, you know, as we look towards, you know, the future, hopefully commodity prices can rebound by technology. You know, if you want to put a silver lining, I think technology really has the opportunity to when we’re operating on solid margins like we are and prices are down. Technology can help kind of optimize other areas of the operation where you can hopefully see an ROI and improve those margins just a little bit. And so, you know, when you look long term, that’s where that’s where there’s maybe a little bit of hope and optimism.

Lydia Johnson: Farm country started the year off worried about new trade wars. Do you believe farmers in the ag equipment sector are no better off or worse off with the deals that President Trump has announced so far and is working on?

Austin Gellings: I think that, you know, I think at the end of the day, we’re all in support of, you know, trying to, make it, us and North American based manufacturing stronger. And so we want to be partners to, to the administration to do that while also making sure that we can provide that certainty to the farmer. You know, as they’re looking to, you know, make their decisions and plan out, we want to be able to provide them certainty in terms of, you know, from the equipment side of things specifically. You know, as I think about making, you know, purchases and planning.

Robb Ewoldt, United Soybean Board

Lydia Johnson: China is the largest customer of U.S. soybeans, yet they’ve made no purchases this year. We asked Rob Ewolt with the United Soybean Board what market diversification USB is looking at as harvest approaches.

Robb Ewoldt: It’s almost impossible to make up for what China would purchase, but we’re looking at and diversifying into other countries around the world and and meeting with different, different, buyers that are coming to the states. And, and we have 59 different countries coming in. We’re represented at Soy Connects in Washington, D.C. last night that are all interested in our US soy. So we’re trying to move in to maybe get a little bit bigger market in the European Union. We fit very well into their into their program when it comes to conservation and and carbon index scoring and all of that. So I think there’s opportunities there. We we have other countries that are interested in our quality when it comes to aquaculture feed and Southeast Asia. You know, so the so we are diversifying and trying to push into other countries.

Lydia Johnson: And you mentioned some of that international diversification. You know, how do you see diversification here in the domestic market?

Robb Ewoldt: Yeah, we’re you know, domestic markets. We can we can control and and play a little bit more in and and have a little bit better influence. And we’re, we’re seeing great, great things happening when it comes to high oleic soybeans. The U.S. farmer has invested through the checkoff and and high oleic like beans for, for about ten years. And and it started off as a food grade thing. And now we found out that there is great benefits to the dairies, to feed roasted whole higher leg soybean oil. It’s really increasing the butterfat content and giving giving those dairy farmers a, premium. And so if I was a U.S. farmer growing soybeans next to a dairy farm, I think I’d be contacting up and saying, hey, any chance you would like to do this high oleic soybean and and what a great opportunity. You know, we got we might have about 7 million cows out there. And each cow eats about an acre of beans a year. So that’s about 7 million acres of high oleic beans that we could move without having to export. And I think that’s a that’s a great win for the U.S. farmer.

Lydia Johnson: You leave the infrastructure and export portfolio at USB as we look ahead to harvest beginning soon. How do you view the status of those systems in the U.S. and what’s being done to improve those?

Robb Ewoldt: Well, with the increased soybean crush that’s happening in in the United States, we know that we have a lot of meal that has to be moved for export. And and so we have we have invested in, in New Orleans, deepening the port down there to make more efficient use of, of those bigger ships. We have we’re we’ve also invested in Port of Houston to, to move some soybean meal. We’ve invested in north in the Pacific Northwest to move soybean meal, because we know that that’s an important part of the crush. We have to we want to use the oil domestically, but we need to move the protein. So so those investments are being made to try to try to improve the efficiencies and, and to lower the cost to our end user. So that way they’ll buy more.

Lydia Johnson: Thanks for joining us for another episode of Agri-Pulse Newsmakers. But the House and Senate will return to Washington next week after the August recess. Tune in next week and check our website any time for the latest on all things food, farm and fuel policy. For Agri-Pulse, I’m Lydia Johnson. Thanks for watching.

Agri-Pulse is a trusted source in Washington, D.C., with the largest editorial team focused on food and farm policy coverage.