Trump Preparing 10% Tariff on China in February

Bloomberg’s Josh Wingrove and Hadriana Lowenkron reported Tuesday that “President Donald Trump widened his tariff threats to include China and the European Union on his second day back in office after day one saw Canada and Mexico in his sights.”

“‘We’re talking about a tariff of 10% on China, based on the fact that they’re sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada,’ Trump said during an event at the White House on Tuesday, specifying Feb. 1 as a possible date,” Wingrove and Lowenkron reported. “‘Other countries are big abusers also, you know it’s not just China,’ Trump said. ‘We have a $350 billion deficit with the European Union. They treat us very, very badly, so they’re going to be in for tariffs.’”

“The threats echo comments made throughout Trump’s campaign for a return to the White House and since his sweeping Nov. 5 victory,” Wingrove and Lowenkron reported. “But the only actual action taken so far is the call for a review of trade practices that’s due by April 1, potentially giving China and others almost 10 weeks to avert new levies or address his demands.”

Reuters’ David Lawder and Andrea Shalal reported that, in response to Trump’s tariff threat, “China said it was willing to maintain communication with the U.S. to ‘properly handle differences and expand mutually beneficial cooperation.’ It sought to promote stable and sustainable ties with the U.S., the foreign ministry said. ‘We always believe that there is no winner in a trade war or tariff war. China will always firmly safeguard its national interests,’ ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters at a regular press briefing on Wednesday.”

How Tariffs Could Affect U.S.-China Trade

NBC News’ Darla Mercado and Evelyn Cheng reported that “the U.S. is China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis. China’s imports from the U.S. fell 0.1% in dollar terms last year, while exports grew 4.9%, according to official data accessed through Wind Information.”

“The data showed China’s trade surplus with the U.S. in 2024 was $361 million, higher than the $316.9 million reported for 2020, the last full year of Trump’s first term,” Mercado and Cheng reported. “Back then, the White House had raised tariffs on Chinese goods in an attempt to increase the country’s imports of U.S. goods, and address longstanding concerns of U.S. businesses in China. Beijing had reciprocated with duties of its own.”

“‘If the U.S. imposed an additional 10% tariff on China and China responded in kind, U.S. GDP would be $55 billion less over the four years of the second Trump administration, and $128 billion less in China,’ the U.S.-based Peterson Institute for International Economics said in a Jan. 17 report,” according to Mercado and Cheng’s reporting.

In addition, Farm Policy News reported in October 2024 that United States corn and soybean farmers could lose billions of dollars in annual production value in the event of a potential new tariff-induced U.S.-China trade war, according to a new economic study commissioned by the American Soybean Association and the National Corn Growers Association and conducted by the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services.

The study found that “U.S. soybean farmers (could) lose an average of $3.6 to $5.9 billion in annual production value” while “U.S. corn farmers (could) lose an average of $0.9 to $1.4 billion in annual production value” depending on how China would respond to increased U.S. tariffs.

Tariff Amount Down from Campaign Threats

The Financial Times’ Joe Leahy, Zijing Wu and Kaye Wiggins reported that “Chinese officials were prepared for Donald Trump to deliver bad news on his return to the U.S. presidency: immediate 60% tariffs on exports that could deal a serious blow to the world’s second-largest economy. What they got instead seemed mild. Trump first ordered an investigation into U.S.-China trade, before on Tuesday reiterating the threat of a 10% tariff related to the deadly opioid fentanyl.”

“That was enough to hit China’s stocks and currency. The mainland’s CSI 300 index fell 1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng retreated 1.6% on Wednesday, while the offshore renminbi weakened 0.25%,” Leahy, Wu and Wiggins reported. “Still, Trump’s opening moves on China were less severe than the 25% tariffs he announced on U.S. allies Mexico and Canada. He also hinted at a potential broader deal linking tariffs to ownership of TikTok, the Chinese-controlled short-video platform that U.S. security hawks want to shut down.”

“‘There is a possibility that the two sides can strike a deal — you can sense there is cautious optimism,’ said Zhao Minghao, professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai,” according to Leahy, Wu and Wiggins’ reporting. “‘But we will need to see if there is a good match between what Trump and Beijing can offer each other.’”

Trump Preparing 10% Tariff on China in February was originally published by Farmdoc.