Trade and Weather Twists Shape the August 2025 Crop Forecast

DAILY Bites

• Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins credits President Trump’s “historic trade wins” and easing inflation for creating stronger market opportunities and stability for producers.

• Corn and soybean production forecasts were trimmed due to weather and acreage reductions, though export demand, especially for corn, remains strong.

• Wheat and cotton output increased, with exports boosted by recent trade agreements and growing demand from key international markets.

DAILY Discussion

In the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which was released Tuesday, U.S. corn yields were revised slightly lower due to hot, dry conditions in parts of the Midwest. Despite the reduced yield forecast, export projections were raised, reflecting stronger global demand — particularly from Asia.

Soybean production was also trimmed, driven by reduced harvested acreage and lower yields. However, domestic crush demand remains firm, supported by robust biofuel production, which continues to provide a solid market for processors.

Wheat output was increased on the back of higher yields in winter wheat areas. Exports also received a boost, benefiting from improved competitiveness in world markets following recent trade agreements. Cotton production estimates rose as well, with higher planted acreage in key southern states. While domestic use is steady, exports are climbing due to growing demand from Southeast Asia.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins linked this month’s release to what she called President Donald Trump’s “historic trade wins over the past few months,” noting that “new and expanded market opportunities are opening for American agricultural producers in every corner of the world.” Rollins also pointed to the day’s inflation report, which came in below analysts’ expectations, saying it gives producers “greater certainty to plan ahead, invest in their operations, and compete globally.”

Globally, coarse grain ending stocks are expected to tighten as consumption growth outpaces production. In the oilseed sector, lower output projections for South America are being offset by strong U.S. exports. For wheat, increased production in North America is helping to balance weather-related losses in parts of the Black Sea region.

Several factors are shaping these forecasts. Recent U.S. trade agreements have opened or expanded access to markets in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, strengthening export potential. Economic conditions have also played a role, with August’s inflation report coming in below analysts’ expectations, easing cost pressures and lending greater stability to the market. Seasonal variability, particularly weather impacts in July and early August, has further influenced yield estimates across key crops.

This month’s edition points to slightly tighter supplies in some commodities, such as corn and soybeans, alongside stronger U.S. export competitiveness in wheat and cotton — developments that could significantly influence market movements in the weeks ahead.