The Calendar Has Turned to Spring. Will the Weather Warm Up?

A change in weather patterns isn’t expected over the next two weeks as the polar vortex continues to bring setbacks following periods of warmth. 

Paul Pastelok, the lead long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, said, overall, the forecast shows that the current weather pattern where temperatures rise and then fall is going to continue through the middle of April.

Rising temperatures bring fire risks

Before temperatures are expected to drop, Pastelok said a warmup is expected towards the end of the week of March 24. “Temperatures are going to be well up there,” Pastelok said.

Several Corn Belt states should expect temperatures above 70°F by Friday, March 28. 

In addition to the warm weather, Pastelok said things could also be “a little on the windy side.”

The combination of heat and wind could result in more fires developing in Oklahoma and parts of Kansas, Pastelok said. This is because of a lack of rainfall or precipitation events over the winter months, he said.

“The threat of fires will continue into the next one to two weeks,” Pastelok said.

Poor air quality is also a possibility due to smoke from fires and dust storms, Pastelok said, which will make field work difficult in the next two weeks.

No drought relief for Texas 

For farmers in Texas, Pastelok said the weather forecast isn’t looking promising. Dry conditions are going to continue throughout the state, he said.

“The conditions are just not right as the winter wheat pops through,” Pastelok said, “[Texas farmers] need rain, and they’re just not getting it.”

Snow expected in some states

As the calendar turns to April, Pastelok said the dropping temperatures and repetitive weather pattern has managed to produce snow in the Upper Midwest, helping to enrich the soil as the 2025 planting season inches closer.

Pastelok said that the “soil moisture should continue to be good” for Iowa and Minnesota, helping those states rebound from the snow deficit they experienced this past winter.

Late into Sunday, March 30, into Monday, March 31, Pastelok said there’s snow possible for Missouri, Illinois, and Arkansas. He said even Nebraska has a possibility of receiving some snowfall from the next storm system.

Soils temperatures may struggle to warm up before planting

Currently, Pastelok said his only concern with the dropping temperatures expected for the Corn Belt states is the challenges those freezing temperatures bring in getting soil temperatures ready for the upcoming planting season. 

“There might be a slight delay [in planting] because it’s going to get chilly again for a couple of nights–down below freezing in the Corn Belt,” Pastelok said.

However, Pastelok said it’s still early, and a rise in temperatures is possible later in April before planting begins.

Overall, he said that the falling temperatures are likely going to be paired with precipitation that follows a deficit of snow cover, making this news more positive than anything. 

Severe weather likely starting April 4

Some severe weather is likely to bring heavy rain and “even some snow as far south as the Ohio Valley” from April 4 to April 8, Pastelok said. 

He said “that’s the time to watch” for some severe weather that will impact Arkansas, Tennessee, and states along the Gulf Coast and into the east.

It’s unlikely that the Corn Belt will be on the receiving end of any of the severe weather, though, Pastelok said.