The Bear Market of 2024: An Unusual Pattern

The grain markets in 2024 were like the weather … unusual. The weather for the Corn Belt started out normal, then turned very wet in May and June. This caused planting delays and low USDA crop ratings. The pattern returned to normal in July, but then the rain shut off. For much of the central and western Corn Belt, it was the driest August and September on record. Once harvest wrapped up, timely rains hit most of the Corn Belt before the ground froze in November. 

The corn market put in a high for the year in early May and then turned lower. Corn prices collapsed to a major low in late August. The timing was similar for soybeans: a late-May high followed by a low in late August, with futures posting a seasonal harvest low in late October. 

It was challenging for many farmers when the grain markets turned lower in late May — the markets never gave a second chance to sell. There was no rebound of any kind until after the price collapse to the major low in late August. 

For four decades, I have traded the grain futures market during summer weather markets. However, this year not only featured a wet summer but also a slowdown in U.S. export demand, while the U.S. Dollar Index rallied to over 105. The slowing exports plus the higher dollar created a lot of fear in the market.  

Many farmers held too long and then panicked in late August, selling massive amounts of corn and soybeans to make room for the new crop. I was at a major farm show in late August. I could not believe how many farmers came up and asked me what to do with the last of their cash corn; some admitted they still had all of it. 

On to a new year. 

What Can You Learn From 2024? 

Here are some tips:

1. Make sure you make some sales each month starting in April, selling more on any rally in late May and early June. 

2. Stay aware of the cash market alignment. In other words, understand what the futures market is telling you about cash bids on the horizon. When the nearby futures bid is well above the cash bid, that means 30–60 days later there will be risk in cash ownership if you hang on too long to your cash corn and soybeans.  

3. Wrap up sales as the cash market falls. It is hard to scale down, but it is still better to spread out your sales. Keep tabs of your average selling price, and know the risk of waiting until August through October to sell. 

Next, what should you do in 2025? Start by reviewing your 2024 cash and new crop sales, regardless of how you did. Look at the number of bushels you sold, and the price you sold at. Most important, review why you made the sale. Also, know that this year will also be challenging. Be prepared.

Back to You: What Actions Can You Take in 2025?

• Remind yourself that holding on to too much grain into August through October has about an 80% chance of being a marketing and financial mistake again this year.  
• Avoid sales in late February. That is when a lot of farmers make large cash sales to make payments that are due the first of March. Those sales just about always take prices down into the first of March. The last week of February can be as bad as late August.  
• Be ready to make sales on any rally in mid- to late March. By that time, you should have 40%–60% of your cash crop sold. I like to use rallies into the 10th to 20th days of April, May, and June to get to 80%–90% sold. Ideally, those sales are made when the offers you have in above the market are hit. But if not, then you need Plan B: your time plan.  
• By the Fourth of July, it is time to have your sales done for the year.

What about new crop sales? Last May, during the rally, I recommended some sales (10%–20% of the 2025 crop). Now, unless weather problems develop and we get an acceptable profit on a South American weather scare this winter (which is not in anyone’s forecast right now), I will wait until February to see the average price of December 2025 corn and November 2025 soybeans. Then, I plan to use a combination of hedges and puts in April and May to get another 10%–30% sold. Even if you have enough capacity to store all your crops into 2026, it is still best to stay consistent and have 30%–50% of your crops protected by early July.

My long-term charts suggest we have put in a major low. I expect a volatile year in the commodity markets, and that you will have better opportunities later this year. I am optimistic, because no one else is. In any case, it will be important to avoid sales from August through October.

Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance — whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies — is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice given will result in profitable trades.