Tennessee, Illinois Cautiously Optimistic Entering Summer; Areas Recovering From Rain-Induced Planting Delays

The start to the 2025 growing season has been varied for the Corn Belt, and dynamic weather conditions have states and regions in a range of situations crop-wise heading into key summer months. 

Progress on corn and soybean planting and emergence among the top 18 growing states is in line with years past, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Corn condition sits at 71% good/excellent condition and soybeans are at 68% good/excellent condition nationwide, per the latest Crop Progress report from the USDA. State climatologists in Illinois and Tennessee are still cautious as critical stages of the season are on the horizon.

Illinois a Tale of Two Halves

Illinois has experienced a very unique planting season, with the northern and southern halves of the state holding a “mixed bag” with a clear split in conditions. Illinois State Climatologist Trent Ford said he heard multiple reports of early planting in northern Illinois due to drier conditions. Despite drought persisting through the spring, Ford said there has been needed precipitation in recent weeks.

“I got a few folks who said they were finished earlier than they can remember finishing [before],” Ford said. “It’s one of those weird situations where the northern part of the state is finishing ahead of the southern part of the state despite the difference in temperatures.”

On the flip side, Ford said, there have been “excessively wet” conditions in southern Illinois throughout spring. There is currently zero drought in southern Illinois, and Ford said he heard multiple reports of significant planting delays or replanted fields because of the excess moisture.

Illinois precipitation data gathered from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet from March through June 10 shows that the northern half of the state received below-average precipitation during planting season. Southern Illinois had far more precipitation than average, and spots such as Marion and Clay county received a mammoth 10.91 inches of rain more than the historic averages for the region. 

What to Watch Out For

Ford said there is not much reason for concern in Illinois right now, despite the very different springs for each half of the state. What happens in July and into August will be key to the yields farmers get in the state, he said.

“We don’t really see much in the way of a relationship between the precipitation we get now and the drought we have now here in mid-June and end-of-season yields,” Ford said. 

“That relationship is at its peak in the mid to late July period. Beans tend to also go into early August, so that’s really where we need to see those storms. Hopefully we see that active storm track continue, especially into July. We’ll see what we look like. Right now, the outlooks for precipitation in July are looking a little bit drier to our west.”

Tennessee Drought-Free, Still Wary of ‘Flash Drought’ Potential

A year can make a world of difference. 

In 2024, Tennessee was without drought — as it was in the most recent Drought Monitor report released. However, the state ended up dealing with flash droughts and damage to various crops during the summer months and into harvest season. State Climatologist Andrew Joyner said 2024 was a year that “devastated” some of the state”s farming communities.

The early signs are better in 2025, he said, starting with the current hay season. Joyner said that despite the harvest suffering from light delays due to wet weather, the hay harvest was wrapping up with positive feedback from many farmers.

Planting delays were present due to the consistency of rainfall in areas of Tennessee, which Joyner said has left corn emergence slightly behind schedule. The most recent Crop Progress report has Tennessee corn at 86% emergence, noticeably behind the five-year average of 92% for this point in the growing season. 

“It was just so rainy. You didn’t get any more than one or two dry days, so you couldn’t get out in the field,” Joyner said.

Assistant State Climatologist WIlliam Tollefson said the northwest and southeast corners of the state have been the hardest hit by rainfall. This is borne out in data from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, which shows that most of the state received more than 3 inches of precipitation above historical averages between March 1 and June 10. Some counties in the western corner of the state got 10 or more inches of excess rainfall over the same period.

What Happens Next?

The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) seasonal forecast for June, July, and August gives Tennessee a decent chance of above-average temperatures and equal chances of higher or lower precipitation. Joyner and Tollefson said they are aware of the forecasted predictions, but feel optimistic the conditions will be less extreme than what farmers dealt with in 2024.

The early rainfall from March through May has given Tennessee a needed buffer from potential dry spells and drought conditions, but Joyner and Tollefson agreed that timely rains (or a lack of timely rain) in the next two months will be decisive during tasseling season.

“It seems late June, early July, is that kind of critical period for us with the tasseling,” Tollefson said. “If we go those weeks without any rain, we don’t really have irrigation set up in most of our corn producing areas.”