Summer a ‘Wild Card’ But Corn Belt Weather in Good Shape, Meteorologist Says

There have been ups and downs in the growing season for multiple states in the Corn Belt during planting season — particularly drought in Nebraska and South Dakota. Heading into the “wild card” summer months, however, Weather 20/20 Owner and CEO Gary Lezak thinks much of the top 18 corn and soybean growing states are in a decent spot. 

What‘s Happening Now?

Recent days have brought heavy rains in Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma. In Kansas, rainfall has led to flash flooding and a state of disaster declaration by Gov. Laura Kelly. Local stations have reported torrential rains have “flooded wheat fields” — with harvest just around the corner. Total Kansas wheat crop production in 2024 was 307.5 million bushels, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). 

Wichita station KWCH wrote Tuesday that wheat fields were impacted by heavy rains — and Robert White, a farmer from Sumner County, said the rain was welcome. While he cautioned that too much rain over the course of multiple days could cause issues, White told KWCH that “If we hadn’t had this rain, we would’ve had nothing.”

According to the Drought Monitor, 69.75% of Kansas was suffering from drought as of May 27 — down from 80% on May 20. 

Lezak said drought in many areas has been shrinking, and wet weather seen early in June could be part of a six-week cycle according to the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) model — used by Weather 20/20. 

“The pattern set up last October and November, set up a cycle,” Lezak said. “It’s about six weeks long. We’ve had phase one of the six week pattern and a second phase. Phase one is fairly wet across the Plains, but we’re sort of in it right now.”

What to Expect in June

Looking toward the near-term future, forecasts from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show temperatures in much of the Corn Belt likely to be above normal from June 11-17. Precipitation for most of the eastern Corn Belt is expected to be near normal in mid-June, with Texas and northern Corn Belt states — like South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota — predicted to receive above-average precipitation. 

For June as a whole, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri are forecast to receive more rain than average, along with historically average temperatures. For the rest of the Corn Belt, temperatures are predicted to be above-average.

Lezak said that even in pockets expecting rainfall above historical averages, there will be dry pockets.

“I am expecting an average summer for rainfall,” Lezak said. “Some areas will struggle. Sometimes you can have a very wet pattern and, and just one county away it’s very dry. We have to look for those pockets.”

July and August Outlook

Heading into the thick of the growing season and looking ahead toward harvest, the United States as a whole is expected to experience temperatures well above average, CPC’s seasonal forecast reports. CPC maps signal normal precipitation is predicted, with Upper Plains states Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota at risk of low precipitation, compared with previous averages.

Lezak said there will be stretches of heat stress and weather conducive to crop diseases during the summer months, but as long as timely rains arrive, Corn Belt states are set up to be in good shape. 

The key, though, is timely rainfalls. 

“Two or three stretches of 3 to 7 days where it gets up to hot and dry conditions, becomes a disease environment for the crops,” Lezak said. “That will likely happen as we go through July into early August. We’ll look for those, but just two or three 3 to 7-day stretches, and you have to hope that you get hit by one timely rain that squashes any impact from those heat waves.”

Lezak added that he’s looking closely at northwest Iowa as summer approaches, with LRC models predicting less-than-average amounts of rainfall in the key growing season window  of July 10-20.

“Northwest Iowa’s been a spot that the LRC model is predicting 75% of average rainfall,” Lezak said. “That’s not enough in the summer. When it gets up to near 85 or 90 degrees or hotter we need two inches of water per week. That’s not average. That’s way above average. That might happen in a couple spots, but you need two inches of a good drink of water each week. We’ll have to watch parts of Iowa to see. If they only get a half inch of rain per week, then that’s not enough.”