Soybean Farmers Concerned as Trump Raises China Tariffs to 125%

By Ryan Hanrahan

The Associated Press’ Huizhong Wu reported that “President Donald Trump raised the tariff on Chinese imports to 125% on Wednesday, hours after China boosted the duty on American goods to 84% in an escalating battle that threatens to disrupt trade between the world’s two largest economies.”

“Citing a lack of respect, Trump set China apart from other countries. He said in a social media post that he is pausing his so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on many other trading partners because they had responded by reaching out for talks rather than retaliating,” Wu reported. “The tit-for-tat hikes between the U.S. and China are the latest in an ongoing trade war that threatens to raise prices for consumers in America and derail China’s attempts to reinvigorate its sluggish economy. The response from the Chinese government signals its determination not to bend to Trump’s pressure, despite the risks.”

“‘If the U.S. insists on further escalating its economic and trade restrictions, China has the firm will and abundant means to take necessary countermeasures and fight to the end,’ China’s Ministry of Commerce said before announcing its latest tariff hike,” Wu reported. “In Washington, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: ‘When you punch at the United States of America, President Trump is going to punch back further.’”

What the Trade Dispute with China Means for U.S. Ag

Progressive Farmer’s Chris Clayton reported that “without a change in direction, it might be prohibitive for Chinese buyers to look at U.S. soybeans in the short-term. The American Soybean Association said the stacking of normal duties, tariffs and value-added taxes in China right now puts import costs at just under 115%.”

“‘So, if you send a bushel of beans to China that cost $10 here, it’s going to cost $21.50 a bushel plus whatever shipping costs are when you get it over there,’ said Kentucky farmer Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association,” according to Clayton’s reporting.

“Soybean producers lost nearly $20 billion in economic value during the 2018-19 trade war. Soybean farmers saw permanent demand loss to Brazil, which has increased its sales to China. Chinese companies also have invested more heavily in Brazil as a result,” Clayton reported. “Ragland said in an interview with DTN he hopes cooler heads prevail. Financially, farmers are raising more concerns about what will come from the crops they are preparing to plant this spring.”

AgWeb’s Tyne Morgan reports that “as the market watches the tariff spat unfold, U.S. exports to China are already at a multiyear low. While China is still the top export market for U.S. soybeans, it’s not at the level it was prior to the 2018 trade war.”

“Based on analysis by Terrain, China’s economic struggles and years of stockpiling have reduced demand for U.S. soybeans. Imports in 2024/25 were down 3% to 4 billion bushels. According to Terrain, it will be hard to reverse course on this trend,” Morgan reported. “‘A renewed trade deal would offer false hope. Brazil has been busy feeding China soybeans (supplying nearly three times as much as the U.S. in 2022/23),’ stated analysis by Terrain. ‘China met only 60% of its prior commitment in the Phase One agreement in 2020/21, is now aligned with Brazil and has been for years, and has stagnant demand.’”

Targeted Tariffs on Other Countries Paused

NBC News’ Rob Wile, Colleen Long, and Shannon Pettypiece reported that “President Donald Trump said Wednesday he was pausing higher targeted tariffs for 90 days for most countries, a stunning reversal in his trade war that has sent markets reeling.”

“Trump wrote on social media just before 1:30 p.m. that he came to the decision because more than 75 trading partners didn’t retaliate and have reached out to the United States to ‘discuss’ some of the issues he had raised,” Wile, Long and Pettypiece reported. “But the trade war isn’t exactly over, and the pause didn’t return the world to the time before Trump touched off the global instability; a 10% across-the-board duty will remain.”

“For Canada and Mexico, goods covered by the U.S., Canada and Mexico trade agreement will continue to have no tariffs, while products that aren’t exempt under the trade deal will have a 25% tariff. Canadian energy and fertilizer products will have a 10% tariff,” Wile, Long and Pettypiece reported. “It wasn’t immediately clear which countries the pause would cover; the White House wouldn’t say. …And separate tariffs on imported autos, steel and aluminum will remain, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said later — while planned tariffs on items like lumber and pharmaceuticals are still on.”

Soybean Farmers Concerned as Trump Raises China Tariffs to 125% was originally published by Farmdoc.