Severe Midwest Thunderstorms, Blizzard to Pack One-Two Punch

The first day of spring is nearly a week away, but severe Midwest weather shows no sign of letting up. 

Risks for potential severe thunderstorms, high winds, hail, flooding, and even tornadoes are expected to impact the Midwest later this week. There is also a chance for snow in the Northern Plains and into Minnesota on Saturday.  

“There’s a tornado threat here, there’s no doubt about that, as well as a chance for hail and high winds,” said David Tolleris, meteorologist and owner of WxRisk, a weather consulting firm.

Tornado and High Wind Threat

According to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, there were 67 tornadoes in March last year. AccuWeather is predicting 75 to 150 tornadoes in March 2025. Tolleris said that atmospheric winds with the system coming at the end of the week are very strong. 

“The models are showing winds up to 65 miles per hour, 70 miles per hour Friday afternoon and evening in Missouri and Illinois,” Tolleris said. 

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines also emphasized the threat and potential for damage because of this system.

“Friday is the day to be concerned about,” Kines said. “There’s a high threat for severe weather from Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois that would bring the possibility for tornadoes, large hail, and maybe even rain heavy enough to cause some flooding issues.” 

Possible Spring Blizzard

The back end of the storm system will bring accumulating snow to North and South Dakota and parts of Minnesota and Iowa. Kines said there is potential for several inches, but thinks the system will be moving too quickly to unload as much as 1 to 2 feet. 

Tolleris also noted another storm system to keep an eye out for on March 19 and 20. 

“There’s a blizzard raging on both the GFS and European models for northern Minnesota, all of North Dakota, almost all of South Dakota, western Nebraska, eastern Montana, eastern and Wyoming,” Tolleris said. “The winds are showing up over 50 to 60 miles per hour in gusts for the storm next week.” 

Drought Improvement

Many states in the Midwest remain in some form of drought after a dry fall and below-average snowfall. Tolleris said rainfall in March and April will be vital for states like North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska — who are still experiencing extreme drought. 

“The good news is that we have these two systems coming up, which are going to bring those areas significant precipitation over the next 10 days,” Tolleris said.

Tolleris also added that while it’s too early to tell, if a wet pattern continues into April, it could make it difficult for farmers to get in the field. The three-month seasonal precipitation outlook shows above-average chances for precipitation in eastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio.