Rural Landslide is Part of ‘Historic Realignment’ in Trump Victory

President Trump rolled up 63% of the vote in rural America, a larger margin than in 2016, on the way to winning a second term in the White House on Tuesday. Farm groups offered to work with him on Wednesday to pass the new farm bill, now 14 months overdue, and to bring high costs under control.

“The new administration must also address the impending tax hikes, which would crush many of America’s farmers and ranchers when stacked on top of inflation, high supply costs, and market instability,” said Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation. “Another big issue on farmers’ minds is the labor shortage and skyrocketing costs.” The National Farmers Union pointed to high costs, weather disasters, and “the absence of a renewed five-year farm bill.”

John Boozman of Arkansas, in line to become Senate Agriculture Committee chairman in January, said he would work with Trump to “restore prosperity, border security, and public safety. The Senate Agriculture Committee will refocus on strengthening our rural communities, and we will provide farmers and ranchers the policies and support they desperately need to remain viable.”

Farm-state Republicans in Congress have called for a 15% increase in so-called reference prices, which would make it easier to trigger crop subsidy payments; cuts in SNAP outlays; and the freedom to use climate mitigation funding for conservation practices that do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions or sequester carbon. Senate Agriculture chairwoman Debbie Stabenow, who will retire at the end of the year, has ruled out SNAP cuts and says a 5% increase in reference prices is all that fits in the budget.

“It’s time to unite, and we’re going to try,” said Trump in his victory speech. With some results still being tallied, Trump was winning the popular vote by more than 3 percentage points over Vice President Kamala Harris. “It was a historic realignment, uniting citizens of all backgrounds around a common core of common sense,” he said. “You know, we’re the party of common sense.”

Trump’s largest margin was in rural areas, where he won 63% of the vote and Harris got 36%, a 27-point difference, according to exit polling. Harris won 60% of the urban vote, and Trump won the suburbs 50 to 48%. In his 2016 victory, Trump had a 25-point margin over Democrat Hillary Clinton in rural areas, 59 to 34%, according to a Pew Research Center analysis.

Robert Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine activist and leader of the loosely defined Make America Healthy Again faction that supported Trump, “wants to do some things, and we’re going to let him go to it,” said Trump, without offering details. “He’s going to help make America healthy again.” Kennedy has spoken of a major role in food and health policy in the new administration and has been critical of the departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services and the Environmental Protection Agency.

In a video shot outside USDA headquarters last month, Kennedy said, “When Donald Trump gets me inside the building,” there would be a sharp change of policy toward “natural, unprocessed foods” and away from “more chemicals, more herbicides, more insecticides, more concentrated mono-crops, and feedlots.”

Trump took a different stance in answering a Farm Bureau questionnaire. “American agriculture is built on science, technology, and innovation, and we must stay ahead of China with our science investments,” he said. The former president said he would use tariffs to knock down barriers to U.S. food and ag exports. Farmers received $23 billion in trade war payments to offset lost food and ag exports during the Sino-U.S. trade war that ended in a truce in 2020.

This year, Trump proposed tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods and up to 60% on China. U.S. corn and soybean exports would suffer severely in a renewed trade war with China, said a study commissioned by grower groups.