Planting Delays and Worsening Drought Conditions May Hit Corn Belt

Warmer-than-average temperatures have settled in throughout the majority of the Midwest as the end of February draws near. According to meteorologist Bret Walts from BAM Weather, the “worst of winter” is in the rearview mirror for many states in the Midwest. Looking ahead to the growing season, Walts said states in the Eastern Corn Belt like — Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio — will most likely see persistent rain. That means farmers may have a difficult time getting in the field. 

“It’s a very active pattern in March and into April, and I think some folks in those areas may struggle to see consistent dry time to get out into the fields,” Walts said. “I don’t necessarily think it’s a 2019 deal, where everything’s flooded, but it’s active.” 

Potential for Worsening Drought Conditions

The Climate Prediction Center shows above-average chances for precipitation in the Eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley in both one-month and three-month outlooks. Walts said that precipitation conditions may be more variable in the central Midwest in the next few weeks. However, he expressed concern for continued drought in Nebraska, South Dakota, and western Iowa. 

“I am concerned that while there will be some rain events, I don’t know if you’re going to see drastic improvement in those drought conditions,” Walts said. “I think that’s important heading into the warm season, because if we don’t get any big rain events this spring, it’s going to be really easy for those drought conditions to worsen in May, June, and July.” 

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows nearly all of Nebraska and South Dakota experiencing some form of drought. Regions of northwestern Nebraska and southwestern South Dakota are experiencing extreme drought. The seasonal precipitation outlook, for the months of March through May, shows below-average chances for Nebraska and Kansas. 

“The concern for the back half of spring into summer, I think attention turns to the Plains, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, western Iowa, and Kansas for those drought concerns,” Walts said. “I definitely think those are areas that could see expanding and potentially worsening drought conditions to end spring and into summer.” 

Freeze and Frost Dates

Milder conditions are expected to continue in the Midwest for the next few weeks, but Walts said he sees “volatility” and the chance for unexpected shots of cold throughout the spring. The first day of meteorological spring is March 1. Walts said he sees similarities between the upcoming growing season and spring 2021. 

“I think there can be some sneaky, later-than-normal frost and freeze risk that we’ll need to keep an eye out for into the month of April, not necessarily a super cold April, but enough of the volatility that you can get those sneaky late frost and freeze events like we had in 2021,” Walts said.