North Carolina Moderate Drought Jumps, Severe Drought Hangs On

For the majority of the nation’s top corn-growing states, drought conditions remained completely unchanged this week, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) report. However, some states did see minor to significant changes in drought across their regions.

The most notable changes happened in North Carolina. Here’s a look at where things stand in the Tar Heel State, along with input from the State Climate Office. 

Drought on the Rise

According to the USDM report released Jan. 23, D1 moderate drought in North Carolina jumped 20 points compared to the week prior, from 45% to 65%. Also, the overall percentage of the state with no drought stress decreased from 11% to 2%.

D2 severe drought, the highest designation in the state at this time, remained unchanged this week at 8%. It’s localized to eastern North Carolina.

Corey Davis, North Carolina’s assistant state climatologist, said that precipitation deficits in the east have started to build up after an extended period of below-average total precipitation coming off a dry fall. “Just about every week since November, eastern North Carolina has gotten half an inch or less of total precipitation, and they average about an inch per week at this time of year,” he said. 

Some places are over 5 inches below normal precipitation. “It’s certainly not the sort of fall and early-winter dryness we see every year,” said Davis.

Lingering drought was not unexpected for some of the state this winter, but the hope was that semi-regular precipitation would help offset drought impacts and reset moisture levels going into the spring.

“So far, we haven’t seen as much recovery as we would have liked. Streamflows remain very low across most of central and eastern North Carolina,” said Davis, citing U.S. Geological Survey data. “And those precipitation deficits certainly aren’t getting any smaller,” he added.

Besides very low streamflows and precipitation deficits, groundwater levels have remained below normal across the eastern part of the state in recent weeks, Davis said, citing USGS data. He said those indicators together are driving the drought designations across North Carolina. 

What Soil Moisture Supplies Could Mean for Planting

Citing data from NASA, Davis said that soil moisture levels have been declining overall this month. “Dry areas in eastern North Carolina have gotten even drier, and we’ve seen that dryness expand into western North Carolina. This would certainly be indicative of subsoil moisture reserves continuing to deplete.” 

“With that in mind, the main concern at the moment is that, if and when we shift back to a warmer pattern, those drought impacts might become very obvious,” he said. “Any topsoil moisture from the recent snow could be easily lost as evaporation rates increase, and the subsoil moisture levels beneath that aren’t looking great at the moment.”

Davis said that could mean trouble for farmers when it comes time to get their crops in the ground, but there’s still time this winter and in the early spring for some much-needed precipitation. 

“A little moisture could go a long way at easing any spring drought impacts,” he said.

According to Davis, “The current outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center show slight chances of above-normal precipitation for the first week of February, with perhaps a shift back toward a drier La Niña-like pattern for most of February.”

“That’s not too confidence-inspiring either way, but at least there’s still time on the clock before any potential spring drought issues are staring us right in the face.”