New-Crop U.S. Soybean Export Sales at 20-Year Low

By Ryan Hanrahan

Zaner Ag Hedge’s Karen Braun reported that “as of July 24, U.S. soybean exporters had sold just over 3 million metric tons of soybeans for export in the [marketing year] 2025/2026, which begins Sept. 1. That volume is a 20-year low for the date and is down 12% from last year.”

“New-crop sales are struggling because China has yet to buy a single cargo, and this is China’s latest start in the U.S. bean market since 2005. However, in 2005, the first Chinese purchase came during the week ended Aug. 11,” Braun reported. “If China sits out beyond that [time frame] this year, it will be the latest they have waited to start buying since at least 1999, the extent of [the] USDA’s online database. This would thrust the U.S.-China soybean trade flow into uncharted waters.”

“High-level U.S. and Chinese officials met in Stockholm last week to discuss trade, and U.S. Secretary Scott Bessent said late last week that the ‘makings of a deal’ were there and he was optimistic about the path forward,” Braun reported. “But Brazil still has a hefty amount of soybeans to export. Current shipping lineups show forward volumes similar to two years ago, when Brazil’s August–December bean shipments hit a massive new record.”

Chinese Demand for Soybeans Likely to Weaken

Reuters’ Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral reported at the end of July that “China’s appetite for soybeans is likely to weaken during the peak U.S. marketing season later this year, as record imports earlier in 2025 and tepid demand from animal feed producers have pushed up soymeal inventories at home, trade sources said.”

“A slowdown in Chinese demand could pressure Chicago soybean futures, which are already down for a second consecutive week on expectations of a bumper U.S. harvest,” Cao and Thukral reported. “…‘If third-quarter prices stay weak and crushers face losses, fourth-quarter soybean purchases may fall short of expectations,’ said [Wang Wenshen, an analyst at Shandong province-based consultancy Sublime China Information]. The last quarter of the year is typically the main U.S. soybean marketing season.”

“China’s overall soybean imports hit a record high in May and their second-highest level in June, boosting oilseed processing and leading to a buildup in soymeal inventories, traders said,” according to Cao and Thukral’s reporting. “The surplus is straining China’s crushing plants, with some already shutting down due to storage constraints.”

“China’s purchases of Argentine soymeal, amid high tariffs of U.S. beans, in the last few weeks are likely to add to the glut,” Cao and Thukral reported. As recently as Aug. 1, Reuters reported in a different article, “a Chinese buyer has signed a deal this week to import 30,000 metric tons of Argentine soymeal, as feed producers move to lock in cheaper supplies from South America, two trade sources told Reuters on Friday.”

“The cargo, priced at $345 per metric ton, including freight, is scheduled for shipment between September and October, the sources said,” according to Reuters’ reporting. “This marks the third such deal Reuters reported since June, when Chinese buyers booked the first bulk cargo, years after Beijing approved Argentine soymeal imports in 2019.”

China Previously Pledged More Argentine Ag Purchases

Bloomberg’s Jonathan Gilbert and Manuela Tobias reported in May that “China signed a letter of intent with exporters in Argentina to buy about $900 million of soybeans, corn and vegetable oil, the latest indication that the Asian nation will avoid sourcing from the U.S. during President Donald Trump’s trade war.”

“While not the first of its kind, such a large upfront commitment by China for Argentine crops is unusual. And its arrival amid an escalating trade war is a sign that China is prepared to keep tariffs on the U.S. in place — in retaliation against Trump’s duties — and instead source crops from South America,” Gilbert and Tobias reported.

“The Buenos Aires press office for Chinese trading house Cofco International Ltd. said in a statement Thursday that it reached an understanding with Sinograin, the state company in charge of managing China’s strategic food reserves, ‘to extend the supply of agriculture commodities from Argentina to China and explore further long-term cooperation,’” Gilbert and Tobias reported. “Separately, China’s Fufeng Group Ltd. is interested in building a corn-processing plant, the Argentine Rural Society said in a post on X last month.”

New-Crop U.S. Soybean Export Sales at 20-Year Low was originally published by Farmdoc.