March WASDE: USDA steps down Brazil soybean production

Today, USDA released the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

2023/2024 Argentina and Brazil crop production

For corn, Argentina’s production is pegged at 56 million metric tons (mmt), vs. the trade’s expectation and last month’s estimate of 55 mmt. Brazil’s corn production is estimated at 124 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 121.8 mmt and last month’s estimate of 124 mmt.

For soybeans, Argentina is estimated to produce 50 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 50.4 mmt and February’s estimate of 50 mmt. Brazil’s soybean production is pegged at 155 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 151.6 mmt and last month’s estimate of 156 mmt.

2023/2024 U.S. Ending Stocks

The WASDE report pegged the U.S. 2023/2024 corn ending stocks at 2.172 billion bushels. The trade’s expectation was for 2.154 billion bushels. USDA’s February estimate was at 2.172 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were pegged at 315 million bushels, vs. the trade’s expectation of 319 million and last month’s estimate of 315 million bushels.

USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 673 million bushels, vs. the trade’s expectation of 657 million bushels and last month’s estimate of 658 million bushels.

2023/2024 World Ending Stocks

USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 319.6 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 320.2 mmt. Last month, USDA’s estimate was 322.1 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 114.3 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 114 mmt. USDA’s February estimate was 116 mmt.

For wheat, USDA pegged world ending stocks at 258.8 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 259 mmt. Last month’s estimate was 259.4 mmt.

More from USDA

“This month’s 2023/2024 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month,” says USDA in the March WASDE report. “… The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/2024 is unchanged this month. While soybean crush is unchanged, the soybean meal extraction rate is increased slightly, and higher soybean meal exports are mostly offset by lower domestic use.”

Concerning wheat USDA says “The outlook for 2023/2024 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Exports are reduced 15 million bushels to 710 million with reductions for soft red winter and hard red winter. Ending stocks are raised by an equivalent amount to 673 million bushels and are 18% higher than last year.”

On Brazil’s lowered soybean production estimate, USDA says “Soybean production for Brazil is lowered 1.0 million tons to 155 million on harvest results in Parana and poor weather conditions in São Paulo offset by favorable conditions in the north and Rio Grande do Sul.”