Integrity of USDA Data Questioned After Trade Report Redaction

By Ryan Hanrahan

Reuters’ Julie Ingwersen and Leah Douglas reported that “analysts voiced concerns this week about the integrity of USDA reports after the agency delayed a report and excluded findings that point to tariffs as a reason for a forecasted increase in the agricultural trade deficit, according to Reuters interviews with four analysts.”

“The administration of President Donald Trump has pledged to shrink the farm trade deficit and has said tariffs will strengthen the farm economy, but farm groups have been critical of the approach,” Ingwersen and Douglas reported. “The agency’s delay of a quarterly agricultural trade report and exclusion of its typical explanatory text were concerning because the moves raised questions about the objectivity of the data, two analysts said. ‘The trade is uneasy about USDA statistics now,’ said Charlie Sernatinger, head of grains with Marex, a brokerage and financial services company.”

“A USDA spokesperson said the report was delayed by an internal review,” Ingwersen and Douglas reported. “‘The report was hung up in internal clearance process and was not finalized in time for its typical deadline. Given this report is not statutory as with many other reports USDA does, the department is undergoing a review of all of its non-statutory reports, including this one, to determine next steps,’ the spokesperson said.”

“Two other analysts said they were confident in the USDA data for now, but expressed concern about how Trump’s disruption of the federal government could affect future reports,” Ingwersen and Douglas reported. “‘Departures of key personnel limit the ability of agencies to collect and analyze information,’ said Patrick Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.”

What Was Redacted in the Report?

Politico’s Marcia Brown reported last week: “Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a government forecast because it predicts an increase in the nation’s trade deficit in farm goods later this year, according to two people familiar with the matter. The numbers run counter to President Donald Trump’s messaging that his economic policies, including tariffs, will reduce U.S. trade imbalances. The politically inconvenient data prompted administration officials to block publication of the written analysis normally attached to the report because they disliked what it said about the deficit.”

Progressive Farmer’s Chris Clayton reported that “the May report was 11 pages long with no accompanying written analysis. In comparison, the trade outlook report in February was 24 pages long with detailed analysis looking at world economics and data from both major export countries and importing countries.”

Brown reported, however, that “the published report, released [June 2] but dated May 29, includes numbers that are unchanged from how they would’ve read in the unredacted report, said the people, who were granted anonymity to discuss internal decision-making.”

“Policymakers, farm groups, and commodities traders rely on the closely watched report, which the Agriculture Department issues quarterly, for its analysis of imports and exports of major farm commodities including cotton and livestock,” Brown reported. “The highly unusual rollout could raise questions about potential political meddling with government reports that have traditionally been trusted for decades.”

Report Shows Slight Increase in Ag Trade Deficit

Agri-Pulse’s Philip Brasher reported that “the latest forecast projects that the ag trade deficit will grow to $49.5 billion for FY25, which ends Sept. 30, up from the $49 billion deficit projected in February and the $31.8 billion deficit recorded in FY24.”

“The deficit was $17.2 billion in FY23 after slight surpluses in FY21 and FY22 at $8.5 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively. There were slight deficits in FY19 and FY20,” Brasher reported. “USDA left its forecast for FY25 ag exports unchanged at $170.5 billion but raised its estimate for imports by $500 million to $220 billion, leading to the higher projected deficit.”

“The department raised its forecast for FY25 grain and feed exports to $37.9 billion, up from $37.7 billion in February, and raised the estimate for oilseed shipments to $33.2 billion, up from $32.4 billion,” Brasher reported. “The estimate for livestock product exports was lowered from $39.7 billion in the February forecast to $38.8 billion.”

Integrity of USDA Data Questioned After Trade Report Redaction was originally published by Farmdoc.