How Can the Prospective Plantings Report Help Your Marketing Strategy?

What Happened

One of the more talked about and anticipated reports published by the USDA is the March Prospective Plantings report. The 2025 report was released last Monday. Throughout the winter, there’s much talk amongst farmers and industry professionals concerning which direction farmers will lean — planting more corn, soybeans, or otherwise. Typically, there is a trade-off between corn and soybean acres. This year proved no different. Corn acres were, as expected, higher than a year ago at 95.3 million, adding 4.7 million. However, the pre-report estimate was 94.3 million. Soybeans lost 3.6 million acres from a year ago, coming in at 83.5 million versus the pre-report estimate of 83.8 million. For all principal crops, this season’s expected acreage is 309.9 million, down 1.3 million from last year. Corn had the largest increase; soybeans had the largest loss. 

Why This Is Important

The March 31 number sets the stage for price direction. Once this information (based on surveyed farmers) is known to the marketplace, it becomes old news rather quickly. Just the idea of an additional 4.7 million acres of corn is enough to keep pressure on corn prices, even if it was expected. The report confirmed what farmers were thinking, and the current estimates are what the market will work with between now and the end of June, when the next acreage report is released. Typically, farmers don’t deviate much from their intentions unless something significant occurs. This might be massive and prolonged flooding or some other unexpected supply shock. 

The most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report confirmed that world soybean supplies are record-large and termed more than adequate. Add to that tensions with China and tariffs, it is unlikely soybeans will rally. At least, not without a disruptive weather event affecting production. Nonetheless, with acres reduced more than anticipated, production concerns may quickly ignite a price rally. World demand remains strong. 

What Can You Do?

There’s an old saying: “Knowledge is power.” The knowledge that farmers intend to plant more than a million acres above the pre-report expectations suggests carryout could grow larger than expected — if yield results are also high. This, in turn, could mean lower-than-anticipated prices. The bottom line is: You can strategize and prepare for weaker values in the growing season ahead. With an additional million-plus acres, this could mean a drop in a longer-term price projection from $4 to $3.75. Tighter soybean supplies could suggest a more aggressive bullish argument if weather adversity exists. A consideration is to forward sell on a price rally and retain ownership with a call option or bull call spread.

Find What Works for You

Work with a professional to find the strategy or strategies that are best suited for your operation. Communication is important. Ask critical questions and garner a full comprehension of consequences and potential rewards before executing. The idea is to make good decisions for your operation rather than emotionally charged responses to market moves, which are always dynamic.

Editor’s Note: If you have any questions on this Perspective, feel free to contact Bryan Doherty at Total Farm Marketing: (800) 334-9779.

Disclaimer: The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy, or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell, or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.

About the Author: With the wisdom of 30 years at Total Farm Marketing and a following across the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of brokerage solutions, Doherty lives and breathes farm marketing. He has an in-depth understanding of the tools and markets, listens, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with the decisions.