Grain Markets Expert Offers 4 Rules for Grain Marketing in 2025

This comment came in a winter program, right as I was starting my presentation: “Do you have anything that will work in grain marketing every year? I seem to sell ahead in years when the market rallies into harvest, and then have nothing sold ahead in years like 2024. What should I do differently?” 

I like to keep my presentations positive and at the same time realistic. This was a good question, a tough question — a potentially negative question. I told him I would try to answer his question at the end of the seminar. This could give me some time to think back over the last four decades and look at some of my long-term charts during the break. 

Some years, making grain and livestock marketing recommendations is easier than others. In the mid-1980s, it was tough — in many years, you did not have an opportunity to sell at a profit. The markets were flat, with little opportunity to lock in acceptable prices. It was also challenging from 2015–2019, but selling the seasonal rally into June worked every year.  

After the COVID-19 lows in April of 2020, the commodity markets all turned higher. Also, market volatility has increased, with more fund trading every year. During the pandemic, farmers had to deal with some challenges involving different logistics and getting inputs delivered. Some replacement parts were hard to find. Input costs began to move higher, but crop prices went up faster than input costs in 2021 and 2022. The grain markets were at some good historical price and profit levels through early 2023. 

By 2024, it was tough again; the combination of lower crop prices and higher input and interest costs created a tough marketing environment. Looking back, I helped a lot of farmers survive in the price collapse in the mid-1980s, and believe me, the ’80s were a lot tougher than 2024. 

What helped me and my customers in the 1980s the most was a series of rules I developed. I asked farmers a lot of questions about how they made decisions, when they decided to sell, and why. I asked them to write summaries of their sales. I noted how some farmers managed somehow to make money every year, and they were able to make large profits in the good years, when they had good yields and high prices. 

These are the four rules for 2025: 

1. Stay consistent

I talked with several farmers who said they changed their marketing approaches after the grain markets rallied into the harvest of 2022. They were frustrated when they were delivering on the new crop contracts that were against them at harvest. They were criticized by other farm partners, and decided it was not worth it. Then, in 2023 and again in 2024, the grain markets moved lower into harvest. Not having any grain sold ahead was a larger financial mistake than having sold 30%–50% of the crop ahead in 2022. Stay consistent. Know that 80% of the time, having some grain sold ahead for harvest delivery works to your financial benefit. If you are delivering part of your crops on hedges that are below the market, the real question then is: Where do you sell the rest?

2. Avoid making decisions on what is going on in your backyard.

You need to make decisions based on what is going on in the world, or at least the entire Corn Belt. Some farmers fell into the trap of not selling any corn or soybeans last May and June. It was really wet in their areas, they could not plant on time, and they thought the USDA would lower the national yield and total crop production. They ended up holding on to most of their cash corn and soybeans into August and did not get any new crop sold. 

I know it is tough to sell new crop ahead when you are in an area with weather problems. However, if you have grain in the bin, you need to make disciplined scale-up cash sales. Some areas of the Corn Belt had some weather challenges in 2024, and some areas will have weather challenges in 2025. Know that in 2025, you need to know how global grain markets are. It is not just weather in the Corn Belt; it is weather in South America, Russia, and all over the world. In 2025, we have a large number of macro market factors that impact the grain markets. 

3. Spread out your sales.

When I look at the farmers who always manage to make money, their one common characteristic is they spread out their grain sales to a series of 5%–10%. Some farmers who produce over 200,000 bushels of corn sell 1,000 bushels at a time. When I look at the farmers who struggle, they often make just one or two sales a year, and often they hang on too long. They end up making large cash sales in August to make room for the new crop. One of the successful farmers I have worked with for a long time always says: “Whenever I make a sale, I never look back. I only look at where I will make the next one.”  

4. Use all your alternatives.

It is much different than the 1980s. When you sell grain, you now have more alternatives than ever. You have cash contracts, hedges, hedge-to-arrive contracts, and put options. One big difference from my rules and strategies from the 1980s is the increased use of put options. When I look at farmers who do a good job of marketing, they not only spread out their sales but they also use all the available tools. They use hedges, and hedge-to-arrive contracts, basis contracts, and call and put options. They are managing risk and also making the best grain merchandising decisions. In 2025, with tight margins, choosing the right marketing alternatives and making the right merchandising decisions will have a huge impact on your farm’s profit. If you do not know how to use all these alternatives, make sure someone in your farming operation does. 

Now, back to try and answer the farmer’s question. Do I have something that will work every year? No. But I know seasonal selling has worked 80% of the time, and I think it will work well in 2025. 

Enjoy the challenge, or find someone who does.

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