Farmer sentiment dipped slightly in December as producers grew a bit less optimistic about the long-term outlook for U.S. agriculture, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
The barometer index fell three points from November to a reading of 136, driven primarily by softer future expectations. The Future Expectations Index dropped four points to 140, while the Current Conditions Index held steady at 128. The survey was conducted Dec. 1 to 5, 2025.
Brazil competition and soybean export worries chip away at optimism
Purdue economists Michael Langemeier and James Mintert pointed to rising anxiety about soybean exports, especially as Brazil gains ground in global markets.
“Angst about prospects for U.S. soybean exports amid increasing competition from Brazil contributed to a slightly weaker outlook for the future among crop producers,” the report said.
While producers expressed optimism about U.S. agricultural exports in general, with just 5 percent expecting exports to decline over the next five years, their sentiment shifted when the question narrowed to soybeans.
In December, 13 percent of corn and soybean growers said they expect soybean exports to decline over the next five years, up from 8 percent in November. Meanwhile, the share of growers expecting soybean exports to increase fell from 47 percent to 39 percent month over month.
Concerns about competitiveness were widespread: 84 percent of growers said they were concerned or very concerned about U.S. soybean exports versus Brazil’s, including 45 percent who said they were very concerned.
Farm finances and investment outlook steady, but most say it’s still a bad time to spend
Despite the slight decline in overall sentiment, producers’ expectations for their farms’ financial performance changed little. The Farm Financial Performance Index rose two points to 94, reflecting a shift toward more farmers expecting results to be about the same as last year.
Farm investment interest edged up as well. The Farm Capital Investment Index increased two points to 58, though the majority of respondents still weren’t eager to make major purchases.
Even with the modest increase, 60 percent of producers said it was a bad time to make a large investment in their farms.
Farmland values hit a record high in long-term expectations
Farmers remained positive about land values. The short-term and long-term farmland value expectation indices both rose one point from November. The short-term index moved to 117, up 7 points from a year ago.
More notably, the long-term farmland value expectations index climbed to 166 — a new record high.
Confidence in tariffs cools, but “right direction” sentiment rises
Trade policy continues to play a major role in farm sentiment, and producers appear increasingly uncertain about how tariffs might affect the ag economy over time.
In December, 54 percent of respondents said they expect tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy, down from 58 percent in October and 59 percent in November. The share of farmers uncertain about long-run impacts increased to 19 percent, more than double the level recorded when the question was first introduced in the spring.
Still, when asked whether the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or on the “wrong track,” 75 percent chose “right direction,” the highest reading since the question was added to the survey in July.
